Football · China Division 2 · 06/10, 13:30

Prediction: Shenzhen 2028 vs Shandong Taishan Reserves

Team pages: Shenzhen 2028 · Shandong Taishan Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Shenzhen 20281.42

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.15

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Shenzhen 2028 Draw Shandong Taishan Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Shenzhen 2028 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWLWDLWD

Shandong Taishan Reserves 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWWDDWLDDL

Head-to-head

Shenzhen 2028 0–2 Shandong Taishan Reserves (2 last)

Shandong Taishan Reserves5-0Shenzhen 2028
Shenzhen 20280-1Shandong Taishan Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shenzhen 2028 1518 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1534

	Shenzhen 2028	Draw	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Our model	42%	29%	29%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Shandong Taishan Reserves: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shenzhen 2028	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.7	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.4	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.2	2.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.10▼	Pinn 2.25 ★
X	3.00 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.10 → 2.90▼	Pinn 3.01

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +6’	2.15	3.00	3.10
14:05 +3’	2.10▼	3.30▲	2.90▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:51 +17’	2.25	3.04	3.01

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shenzhen 2028 0–0–2 Shandong Taishan Reserves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/10/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	5-0 HT 2-0	Shenzhen 2028
21/09/25 China Division 2	Shenzhen 2028	0-1 HT 0-1	Shandong Taishan Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	24	14	4	6	39	19	46
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	24	13	4	7	30	18	43
3	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	24	13	3	8	32	19	42
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	24	12	6	6	34	23	42
5	Shenzhen 2028	24	11	8	5	38	25	41
6	Dalian Kewei	24	10	11	3	23	14	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	24	11	5	8	27	21	38
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	24	8	11	5	25	30	35

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shenzhen 2028	Shandong Taishan Reserves
Dalian Kewei	0-0 D	2-2 D
Jiangxi Lushan	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Shenzhen 2028 (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shenzhen 2028

DDWWLWDLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
13/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	8	5	W
23/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-1	9	1	L
16/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
08/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	6-0	2	2	W
01/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
25/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
18/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-1	3-1	4	2	W
11/07	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
05/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D

Shandong Taishan Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
04/07	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	2-0	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shenzhen 2028 vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shenzhen 2028 win (42%). Probabilities: Shenzhen 2028 42%, draw 29%, Shandong Taishan Reserves 29%.

How many goals are expected in Shenzhen 2028 vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Shenzhen 2028 1.42 · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.15), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shenzhen 2028 vs Shandong Taishan Reserves?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.