Football · China Division 2 · 12/10, 13:30

Prediction: Wenzhou FC vs Changchun Xidu

Team pages: Wenzhou FC · Changchun Xidu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.97Total

Wenzhou FC1.11

Changchun Xidu0.86

1X2

40% 33% 27%

Wenzhou FC Draw Changchun Xidu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 60% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

0-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Wenzhou FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

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Changchun Xidu 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDDLLDWWDD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wenzhou FC 1488 · Changchun Xidu 1486

	Wenzhou FC	Draw	Changchun Xidu
Our model	40%	33%	26%
Market	41%	32%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 1.97 goals · Bet365 line 1.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wenzhou FC	Changchun Xidu
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.9	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.5	1.2 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X2.80

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 1.751.77

Under 1.752.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
2	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +14’	2.20	2.80	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +72’	2.16	2.70	3.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	25	10	8	7	32	25	38
2	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	25	7	11	7	23	24	32
3	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	25	6	14	5	17	19	32
4	Guangdong Mingtu	25	6	13	6	24	21	31
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	6	8	11	24	32	26
6	Wenzhou FC	25	5	11	9	17	26	26
7	Changchun Xidu	25	4	13	8	18	30	25
8	Shanghai Segenda	25	2	11	12	23	41	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wenzhou FC	Changchun Xidu
Shanghai Segenda	1-1 D	1-1 D
Dalian Young Boy Reserves	1-0 W	0-1 L
Guangdong Mingtu	0-0 D	0-0 D
Guangzhou Dandelion	0-0 D	1-1 D
Hubei Istar	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wenzhou FC

LDDLDDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	1-1	1	4	D
18/09	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-2	5	2	L
13/09	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	2-0	2	1	W
16/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
09/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
05/08	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-1	0-2	0	7	L
01/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
25/07	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
18/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	1-2	16	2	L

Changchun Xidu

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
18/09	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
22/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	1-1	2-1	1	4	W
15/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
09/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	1-0	1-2	2	9	L
05/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	2	3	L
02/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	1-1	1	7	D
25/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wenzhou FC vs Changchun Xidu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wenzhou FC win (40%). Probabilities: Wenzhou FC 40%, draw 33%, Changchun Xidu 27%.

How many goals are expected in Wenzhou FC vs Changchun Xidu?

The model expects 1.97 goals (Wenzhou FC 1.11 · Changchun Xidu 0.86), with a 53% chance of over 1.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Wenzhou FC vs Changchun Xidu?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.