Football · China Division 2 · 11/10, 09:30

Prediction: Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Team pages: Shandong Taishan Reserves · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

Shandong Taishan Reserves1.01

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1.04

1X2

33% 31% 35%

Shandong Taishan Reserves Draw Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Shandong Taishan Reserves 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Shandong Taishan Reserves 0–2 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic (2 last)

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1-0Shandong Taishan Reserves
Shandong Taishan Reserves0-2Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shandong Taishan Reserves 1524 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1530

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Draw	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Our model	33%	33%	34%
Market	34%	30%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	3.5 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.00

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.80

Under 22.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.63▲	Pinn 2.82 ★
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	2.75 → 2.50▼	Pinn 2.63

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.4%

Time*	1	X	2
04:42 +41’	2.40	3.00	2.75
15:19 +4’	2.63▲	3.00	2.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +50’	2.82	2.71	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Shandong Taishan Reserves 0–0–2 Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 China Division 2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	1-0 HT 0-0	Shandong Taishan Reserves
14/09/25 China Division 2	Shandong Taishan Reserves	0-2 HT 0-0	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	25	14	4	7	40	21	46
2	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	25	14	3	8	34	20	45
3	Shandong Taishan Reserves	25	13	6	6	36	23	45
4	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	25	13	5	7	30	18	44
5	Dalian Kewei	25	11	11	3	24	14	44
6	Shenzhen 2028	25	11	8	6	38	27	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	25	11	5	9	27	22	38
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	25	8	12	5	25	30	36

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shandong Taishan Reserves	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic
Shenzhen 2028	2-0 W	1-0 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	0-0 D	3-4 L
Shanghai Port Reserves	3-1 W	2-1 W
Dalian Kewei	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Shandong Taishan Reserves (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shandong Taishan Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-2	1-2	5	0	L
13/09	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	2-2	2	3	D
15/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
08/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	3-0	3-1	8	3	W
02/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-1	2-2	9	1	D
25/07	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	1	D
18/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	2	W
12/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	1-0	6	2	W

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
19/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
12/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L
05/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
01/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
25/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	3-0	8	1	W
19/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic win (35%). Probabilities: Shandong Taishan Reserves 33%, draw 31%, Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 35%.

How many goals are expected in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model expects 2.05 goals (Shandong Taishan Reserves 1.01 · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Shandong Taishan Reserves vs Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.