Football · China Division 2 · 24/10, 10:00

Prediction: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Team pages: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.84Total

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic1.13

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai0.7

1X2

46% 31% 23%

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic Draw Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 56% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDDLLWDL

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLWDWW

Head-to-head

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 0–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (1 last)

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai1-0Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1504 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 1547

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Draw	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Our model	45%	34%	21%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.84 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (rating 1504 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1	0.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	0.3 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 21.77

Under 22.02

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 1.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:04 +5’	1.91	3.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 0–0–1 Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 China Division 2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	1-0 HT 0-0	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Promotion Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Shanghai Port Reserves	27	15	5	7	42	22	50
2	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai	27	15	5	7	33	19	50
3	Dalian Kewei	27	12	12	3	28	17	48
4	Shandong Taishan Reserves	27	13	8	6	37	24	47
5	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	27	14	4	9	36	23	46
6	Shenzhen 2028	27	11	8	8	39	30	41
7	Jiangxi Lushan	27	11	6	10	28	24	39
8	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	27	8	14	5	27	32	38

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai
Shanghai Port Reserves	2-1 W	1-0 W
Hangzhou Linping Wuyue	3-4 L	0-0 D
Shenzhen 2028	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Shanxi Chongde Ronghai (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic

WWLDDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-2	1-2	7	4	L
11/10	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	1	5	D
06/10	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-1	2-1	7	1	W
19/09	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	3	L
12/09	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
23/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
16/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
11/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-2	3-4	4	7	L
05/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	1-0	2-0	10	7	W
01/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	5	W

Shanxi Chongde Ronghai

WWWLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	12	1	W
12/10	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	1-1	2-1	4	4	W
06/10	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
19/09	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
13/09	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
22/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
09/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	9	W
05/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
01/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	1-0	2-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic win (46%). Probabilities: Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 46%, draw 31%, Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 23%.

How many goals are expected in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model expects 1.84 goals (Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic 1.13 · Shanxi Chongde Ronghai 0.7), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic vs Shanxi Chongde Ronghai?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.