Football · China Division 2 · 06/10, 11:00

Prediction: Hubei Istar vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Team pages: Hubei Istar · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.22Total

Hubei Istar1.04

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.18

1X2

31% 31% 38%

Hubei Istar Draw Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Hubei Istar 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DWDDLLLWLD

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDDDWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Hubei Istar 1–3 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (4 last)

Hubei Istar2-3Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic2-0Hubei Istar
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1-0Hubei Istar
Hubei Istar1-0Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hubei Istar 1475 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1530

	Hubei Istar	Draw	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Our model	31%	32%	38%
Market	31%	31%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.22 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (rating 1475 vs 1530).
H2H favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hubei Istar	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.3	1.2 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.6	2.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.90

X2.90

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.97
X	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
2	2.35 → 2.35	Pinn 2.48 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:03 +2’	2.90	2.90	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:59 +5’	2.97	2.74	2.48

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hubei Istar 1–0–3 Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/06/25 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	2-3 HT 1-1	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
09/04/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	2-0 HT 0-0	Hubei Istar
13/07/24 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	1-0 HT 1-0	Hubei Istar
05/05/24 China Division 2	Hubei Istar	1-0 HT 1-0	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	24	9	8	7	30	25	35
2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	24	6	14	4	17	17	32
3	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	24	7	10	7	22	23	31
4	Guangdong Mingtu	24	6	12	6	23	20	30
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	24	6	7	11	23	31	25
6	Wenzhou FC	24	5	10	9	16	25	25
7	Changchun Xidu	24	4	12	8	17	29	24
8	Shanghai Segenda	24	2	10	12	22	40	16

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hubei Istar	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Shanghai Segenda	0-0 D	2-2 D
Wenzhou FC	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hubei Istar

DWDDLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
12/09	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-1	1-2	4	6	L
23/08	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
16/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
08/08	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-1	2-3	3	4	L
05/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-1	1	1	L
01/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	0	D
26/07	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	1-1	1-1	2	1	D
18/07	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	2-0	2-1	5	2	W
04/07	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-4	0	0	D

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

DDDDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
13/09	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
22/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
05/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-2	6	3	D
19/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hubei Istar vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (38%). Probabilities: Hubei Istar 31%, draw 31%, Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 38%.

How many goals are expected in Hubei Istar vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model expects 2.22 goals (Hubei Istar 1.04 · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.18), with a 51% chance of over 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Hubei Istar vs Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.