Football · China Division 2 · 11/10, 10:00

Prediction: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangdong Mingtu

Team pages: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic · Guangdong Mingtu

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.81Total

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic1.13

Guangdong Mingtu0.68

1X2

46% 32% 22%

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic Draw Guangdong Mingtu

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-0 18%

Recent form · 10 last

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

DDDWDWDWWL

Guangdong Mingtu 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DDWDDWLWDD

Head-to-head

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 2–0 Guangdong Mingtu (2 last)

Guangdong Mingtu1-2Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic3-0Guangdong Mingtu

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1519 · Guangdong Mingtu 1521

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Draw	Guangdong Mingtu
Our model	45%	34%	21%
Market	47%	31%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 1.81 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Guangdong Mingtu
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	1.7 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X2.88

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 21.95

Under 21.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.7

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 15:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.91▼	Pinn 1.95
X	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
2	3.40 → 4.00▲	Pinn 4.11 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
05:09 +14’	2.10	2.88	3.40
11:09 +9’	2.15▲	2.88	3.30▼
15:19 +6’	1.91▼	2.88	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
10:28 +50’	1.95	2.86	4.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 1.75

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 2–0–0 Guangdong Mingtu

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/09/25 China Division 2	Guangdong Mingtu	1-2 HT 1-1	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic
22/08/25 China Division 2	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	3-0 HT 1-0	Guangdong Mingtu

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hubei Istar	25	10	8	7	32	25	38
2	Dalian Young Boy Reserves	25	7	11	7	23	24	32
3	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	25	6	14	5	17	19	32
4	Guangdong Mingtu	25	6	13	6	24	21	31
5	Guangzhou Dandelion	25	6	8	11	24	32	26
6	Wenzhou FC	25	5	11	9	17	26	26
7	Changchun Xidu	25	4	13	8	18	30	25
8	Shanghai Segenda	25	2	11	12	23	41	17

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic	Guangdong Mingtu
Hubei Istar	0-2 L	0-0 D
Wenzhou FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Shanghai Segenda	2-2 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Guangdong Mingtu (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
18/09	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
13/09	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-0	2-1	2	2	W
22/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
15/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	7	W
09/08	Dalian Kewei China Division 2	2-0	2-2	1	4	D
05/08	Beijing Institute China Division 2	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
01/08	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
29/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	1-0	2-2	5	3	D
25/07	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-2	6	3	D

Guangdong Mingtu

DDWDDWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
18/09	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
12/09	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
23/08	Hangzhou Linping Wuyue China Division 2	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
16/08	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves China Division 2	2-0	3-0	4	1	W
09/08	Wenzhou FC China Division 2	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
01/08	Hubei Istar China Division 2	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
27/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
19/07	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
11/07	Shenzhen 2028 China Division 2	1-2	2-2	6	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangdong Mingtu?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic win (46%). Probabilities: Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 46%, draw 32%, Guangdong Mingtu 22%.

How many goals are expected in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangdong Mingtu?

The model expects 1.81 goals (Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic 1.13 · Guangdong Mingtu 0.68), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic vs Guangdong Mingtu?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.