Football · China Division 2 · 06/10, 09:30

Prediction: Qingdao Red Lions vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Team pages: Qingdao Red Lions · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.03Total

Qingdao Red Lions1.15

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves0.88

1X2

41% 32% 27%

Qingdao Red Lions Draw Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Qingdao Red Lions 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLWDWDLWL

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLLWDL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Qingdao Red Lions 1488 · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1491

	Qingdao Red Lions	Draw	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves
Our model	41%	33%	27%
Market	42%	31%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.03 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Qingdao Red Lions	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 0.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.4	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X2.90

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 13:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.15▲	Pinn 2.35 ★
X	3.00 → 2.90▼	Bet365 2.90
2	3.90 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:00 +5’	1.91	3.00	3.90
13:02 +2’	2.15▲	2.90▼	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +7’	2.35	2.70	3.23

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tai'an Tiankuang	24	8	9	7	26	24	33
2	Xiamen Feilu	24	8	8	8	32	29	32
3	Nantong Haimen Codion	24	6	12	6	28	24	30
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	24	7	8	9	21	34	29
5	Qingdao Red Lions	24	6	10	8	24	22	28
6	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	24	5	9	10	20	26	24
7	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	24	4	8	12	20	28	20
8	Beijing Institute	24	4	7	13	22	45	19

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Qingdao Red Lions	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves
Ganzhou Ruishi	1-2 L	4-0 W
Xiamen Feilu	1-0 W	2-1 W
Nantong Haimen Codion	1-1 D	0-2 L
Tai'an Tiankuang	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Qingdao Red Lions

DLLWDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
13/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Shanghai Port Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
19/08	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-1	1	6	D
15/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
01/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
27/07	Beijing Institute China Division 2	3-0	6-1	2	1	W
19/07	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
12/07	Shandong Taishan Reserves China Division 2	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
05/07	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

WLDWWLLWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
12/09	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
16/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
08/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-1	4-1	8	3	W
29/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
19/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	0	1	L
04/07	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	0-0	1-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Qingdao Red Lions vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Qingdao Red Lions win (41%). Probabilities: Qingdao Red Lions 41%, draw 32%, Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 27%.

How many goals are expected in Qingdao Red Lions vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

The model expects 2.03 goals (Qingdao Red Lions 1.15 · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 0.88), with a 52% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Qingdao Red Lions vs Wuhan Three Towns Reserves?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.