Football · China Division 2 · 11/10, 11:00

Prediction: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Beijing Institute

Team pages: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves · Beijing Institute

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves1.94

Beijing Institute1.02

1X2

57% 24% 18%

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves Draw Beijing Institute

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLWDLW

Beijing Institute 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1–1 Beijing Institute (2 last)

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves2-0Beijing Institute
Beijing Institute1-0Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1502 · Beijing Institute 1488

	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Draw	Beijing Institute
Our model	58%	24%	18%
Market	57%	25%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Beijing Institute
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.5	1.3 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.60

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.73 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:11 +12’	1.57	3.60	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +6’	1.53	3.57	5.73

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1–0–1 Beijing Institute

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/10/25 China Division 2	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	2-0 HT 2-0	Beijing Institute
31/08/25 China Division 2	Beijing Institute	1-0 HT 1-0	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

Standings · China Division 2 · China League 2 2026, Relegation Round, Group B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tai'an Tiankuang	25	9	9	7	29	24	36
2	Nantong Haimen Codion	25	7	12	6	30	24	33
3	Xiamen Feilu	25	8	8	9	32	31	32
4	Ganzhou Ruishi	25	7	8	10	21	37	29
5	Qingdao Red Lions	25	6	10	9	24	24	28
6	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves	25	5	9	11	20	28	24
7	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	25	5	8	12	22	28	23
8	Beijing Institute	25	5	7	13	24	45	22

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wuhan Three Towns Reserves	Beijing Institute
Qingdao Red Lions	2-0 W	1-6 L
Nantong Haimen Codion	0-2 L	1-2 L
Ganzhou Ruishi	4-0 W	1-0 W
Xiamen Feilu	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Wuhan Three Towns Reserves

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	1-0	2-0	1	4	W
18/09	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
12/09	Tai'an Tiankuang China Division 2	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
23/08	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
16/08	Guangdong Mingtu China Division 2	0-2	0-3	7	1	L
08/08	Jiangxi Lushan China Division 2	0-0	0-2	5	5	L
02/08	Guangzhou Dandelion China Division 2	0-1	4-1	8	3	W
29/07	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	1-1	2-1	2	3	W
26/07	Hubei Istar China Division 2	1-1	1-1	9	1	D
19/07	Guizhou Zhucheng Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	0	1	L

Beijing Institute

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Chengdu Rongcheng Reserves China Division 2	2-0	2-0	2	3	W
19/09	Xiamen Feilu China Division 2	0-1	0-3	5	0	L
12/09	Ganzhou Ruishi China Division 2	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
22/08	Dalian Young Boy Reserves China Division 2	1-1	4-3	3	4	W
15/08	Changchun Xidu China Division 2	1-1	2-2	5	3	D
08/08	Shanghai Segenda China Division 2	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
05/08	Lanzhou Longyuan Athletic China Division 2	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
01/08	Shanxi Chongde Ronghai China Division 2	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
29/07	Nantong Haimen Codion China Division 2	0-0	1-2	0	4	L
27/07	Qingdao Red Lions China Division 2	0-3	1-6	4	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wuhan Three Towns Reserves win (57%). Probabilities: Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 57%, draw 24%, Beijing Institute 18%.

How many goals are expected in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Wuhan Three Towns Reserves 1.94 · Beijing Institute 1.02), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Wuhan Three Towns Reserves vs Beijing Institute?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.