Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 01/10, 18:30

Prediction: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm1.29

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1.55

1X2

31% 27% 43%

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Draw Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLDDWD

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDLWWDD

Head-to-head

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (2 last)

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm1-0Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1-0Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1486 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1529

	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Draw	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (rating 1486 vs 1529).
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/67/22%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5.7	2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.7	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.40

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:51 +17’	2.90	3.40	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1–0–1 Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	1-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
26/09/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	1-0	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Beitar Nahariya	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Ironi Nesher	4	3	1	0	14	3	10
3	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	4	3	1	0	14	6	10
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Sport Club Tira	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
10	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	4	1	0	3	7	9	3
12	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	4	0	3	1	2	5	3
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	4	1	0	3	4	12	3
14	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
14	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	4	0	1	3	5	11	1
17	Hapoel Beit Shean	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	4	0	0	4	1	13	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Hapoel Bnei Musmus	0-2 L	3-0 W
Hapoel Beit Shean	2-3 L	1-0 W
Ironi Nesher	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

LLWWLLDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	13	5	D
09/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
26/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
21/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
12/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
05/02	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
30/01	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-2	6	7	W
23/01	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-2	6	6	L
17/01	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	1-3	2-3	6	7	L

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

WLLDDLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
19/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/09	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	0	8	W
04/09	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
19/02	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/02	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
30/01	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	2	6	L
23/01	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-0	1	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win (43%). Probabilities: Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 31%, draw 27%, Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.29 · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Umm al-Fahm vs Hapoel Ironi Karmiel?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.