Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 30/09, 16:30

Prediction: Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

Team pages: Hapoel Bnei Musmus · Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Hapoel Bnei Musmus1.06

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik1.86

1X2

20% 24% 55%

Hapoel Bnei Musmus Draw Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWDLLD

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WDDLWDDWWW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–1–1 Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik (3 last)

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik1-2Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Hapoel Bnei Musmus0-2Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Hapoel Bnei Musmus1-1Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1514 · Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 1560

	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Draw	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	24%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik (rating 1514 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.7 / 0.5	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.70

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +10’	4.33	3.70	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1–1–1 Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1-2 HT 0-2	Hapoel Bnei Musmus
09/10/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	0-2 HT 0-2	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
21/01/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	1-1 HT 1-0	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Beitar Nahariya	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Ironi Nesher	4	3	1	0	14	3	10
3	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	4	3	1	0	14	6	10
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Sport Club Tira	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
10	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	4	1	0	3	7	9	3
12	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	4	0	3	1	2	5	3
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	4	1	0	3	4	12	3
14	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
14	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	4	0	1	3	5	11	1
17	Hapoel Beit Shean	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	4	0	0	4	1	13	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2-0 W	0-0 D
Hapoel Beit Shean	0-1 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

WWWLWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
10/09	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
06/09	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
21/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
06/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
24/01	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-1	3	6	W
16/01	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-1	4	7	W

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

WDDLWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	3-0	5-3	4	4	W
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	4-0	4	2	W
09/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
05/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-2	7	7	D
26/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
21/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
12/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	1	4	L
06/02	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
31/01	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-2	6	3	D
24/01	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-0	4	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik win (55%). Probabilities: Hapoel Bnei Musmus 20%, draw 24%, Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 55%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1.06 · Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 1.86), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Bnei Musmus vs Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.