Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 30/09, 19:30

Prediction: Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Hapoel Beit Shean1.34

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1.2

1X2

39% 28% 33%

Hapoel Beit Shean Draw Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Beit Shean 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hapoel Beit Shean 2–0 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye (2 last)

Hapoel Beit Shean2-1Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye0-4Hapoel Beit Shean

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Beit Shean 1542 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1466

	Hapoel Beit Shean	Draw	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Beit Shean (rating 1542 vs 1466).
H2H favours Hapoel Beit Shean: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Beit Shean	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.3 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/67/11%	11/44/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.3 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.6	5.6 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.40

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +7’	2.25	3.40	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Beit Shean 2–0–0 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/12/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Beit Shean	2-1 HT 2-1	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
10/12/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	0-4 HT 0-2	Hapoel Beit Shean

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Beitar Nahariya	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Ironi Nesher	4	3	1	0	14	3	10
3	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	4	3	1	0	14	6	10
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Sport Club Tira	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
10	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	4	1	0	3	7	9	3
12	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	4	0	3	1	2	5	3
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	4	1	0	3	4	12	3
14	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
14	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	4	0	1	3	5	11	1
17	Hapoel Beit Shean	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	4	0	0	4	1	13	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Beit Shean	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Tirat Karmel	1-0 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3-2 W	3-3 D
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	2-2 D	0-1 L
Ironi Nesher	3-2 W	0-2 L
Maccabi Achi Nazareth	0-0 D	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Beit Shean (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Beit Shean

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/02	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/02	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-0	9	3	W
12/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
06/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	3	6	W
31/01	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
23/01	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	3	5	L
16/01	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-1	4	6	W
11/01	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-2	6	8	W
06/01	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

LLWLLDDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	1	5	W
19/09	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	1	5	D
09/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
05/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
20/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-3	–	–	L
13/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
06/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-1	6	9	W
30/01	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/01	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Beit Shean win (39%). Probabilities: Hapoel Beit Shean 39%, draw 28%, Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 33%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Hapoel Beit Shean 1.34 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1.2), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Beit Shean vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.