Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 30/09, 14:30

Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Arraba · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Hapoel Ironi Arraba0.82

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq2.55

1X2

9% 17% 74%

Hapoel Ironi Arraba Draw Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

0-2 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Ironi Arraba 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WLDLLWLLLL

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWLWWDWL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–3 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (3 last)

Hapoel Ironi Arraba1-2Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Ironi Arraba1-2Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq2-0Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Arraba 1418 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1541

	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Draw	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Our model	9%	17%	74%
Market	9%	17%	74%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (rating 1418 vs 1541).
H2H favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.6	2.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.3	5.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

110.00

X5.25

21.22

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.95

2 (-1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.22 → 1.22	Bet365 1.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +7’	10.00	5.25	1.22

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0–0–3 Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
06/01/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	1-2 HT 1-2	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
31/01/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	1-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
06/09/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	2-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Arraba

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Beitar Nahariya	4	4	0	0	8	1	12
2	Ironi Nesher	4	3	1	0	14	3	10
3	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	4	3	1	0	14	6	10
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	4	2	2	0	8	3	8
5	Sport Club Tira	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	3	2	1	0	6	4	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3	1	2	0	7	6	5
8	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	4	1	2	1	6	6	5
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	3	1	1	1	8	7	4
10	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	4	1	0	3	7	9	3
12	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	4	0	3	1	2	5	3
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	4	1	0	3	4	12	3
14	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	4	0	2	2	2	6	2
14	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
16	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	4	0	1	3	5	11	1
17	Hapoel Beit Shean	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	4	0	0	4	1	13	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1-4 L	4-2 W
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	0-4 L	2-2 D
FC Tzeirey Tamra	0-3 L	2-0 W
Ironi Nesher	1-3 L	3-0 W
Maccabi Achi Nazareth	2-2 D	2-4 L
Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm	0-3 L	3-1 W
Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	3-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 5 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Ironi Arraba

WLDLLWLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	1-4	5	6	L
19/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-4	1	2	L
10/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-4	–	–	L
06/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-1	1	7	W
22/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	3	7	L
13/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	10	L
06/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	–	2-2	–	–	D
30/01	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-3	2	2	L
27/01	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	5	5	W

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

LWDWLWWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
18/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	4-2	3	7	W
05/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
27/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
13/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	1-3	2-4	7	4	L
06/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/01	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/01	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	8	3	W
16/01	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	1-2	4	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Migdal Haemeq win (74%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Arraba 9%, draw 17%, Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 74%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Hapoel Ironi Arraba 0.82 · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 2.55), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Arraba vs Hapoel Migdal Haemeq?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.