Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 09/10, 14:00

Prediction: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Team pages: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed · Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1.15

Hapoel Bnei Musmus1.42

1X2

30% 28% 42%

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Draw Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWDWLLLLWL

Hapoel Bnei Musmus 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLLDW

Head-to-head

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–2–1 Hapoel Bnei Musmus (3 last)

Hapoel Bnei Musmus1-0Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Hapoel Bnei Musmus1-1Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1-1Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1435 · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1531

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Draw	Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	28%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Bnei Musmus (rating 1435 vs 1531).
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5	1.7 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.4	5.6 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.25

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 09:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
09:16 +8’	3.00	3.25	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–2–1 Hapoel Bnei Musmus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/12/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	1-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
10/12/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	1-1 HT 1-1	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
14/12/18 Israel Liga Bet North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1-1 HT 0-1	Hapoel Bnei Musmus

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	5	4	1	0	18	4	13
2	Beitar Nahariya	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
3	Sport Club Tira	5	3	2	0	10	4	11
4	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	5	3	1	1	14	7	10
5	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	5	2	3	0	8	3	9
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	1	3	0	7	6	6
8	FC Tzeirey Tamra	5	2	0	3	7	14	6
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
11	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
13	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
14	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
15	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
16	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
17	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	0	1	4	2	14	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Hapoel Bnei Musmus
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1-3 L	1-0 W
Sport Club Tira	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Bnei Musmus (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

LWDWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
24/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-1	9	6	W
18/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-4	4	7	L
09/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
13/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
06/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	3	D
30/01	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
26/01	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-3	9	3	L

Hapoel Bnei Musmus

WWLWWDLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
23/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
18/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
10/09	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	4	8	L
06/09	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
21/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-0	4	7	W
12/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-1	4	4	W
06/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	3-2	3	6	W
24/01	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-1	3	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hapoel Bnei Musmus win (42%). Probabilities: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 30%, draw 28%, Hapoel Bnei Musmus 42%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1.15 · Hapoel Bnei Musmus 1.42), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Hapoel Bnei Musmus?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.