Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 08/10, 17:00

Prediction: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Team pages: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel · Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.49Total

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1.66

Hapoel Tirat Karmel0.83

1X2

57% 25% 18%

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Draw Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LLDDLWWDDD

Hapoel Tirat Karmel 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LDLDLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1–3–0 Hapoel Tirat Karmel (4 last)

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1-1Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Hapoel Tirat Karmel0-3Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel1-1Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Hapoel Ironi Karmiel0-0Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1530 · Hapoel Tirat Karmel 1422

	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Draw	Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Our model	56%	27%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.49 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (rating 1530 vs 1422).
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1	0.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.6	0.6 / 2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.57

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
06:50 +9’	1.57	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1–3–0 Hapoel Tirat Karmel

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	1-1 HT 0-0	Hapoel Tirat Karmel
10/10/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	0-3 HT 0-3	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel
14/05/25 Israel Liga Bet North	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	1-1 HT 1-1	Hapoel Tirat Karmel
17/04/22 Israel Liga Bet North	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Tirat Karmel

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	5	4	1	0	18	4	13
2	Beitar Nahariya	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
3	Sport Club Tira	5	3	2	0	10	4	11
4	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	5	3	1	1	14	7	10
5	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	5	2	3	0	8	3	9
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	1	3	0	7	6	6
8	FC Tzeirey Tamra	5	2	0	3	7	14	6
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
11	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
13	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
14	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
15	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
16	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
17	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	0	1	4	2	14	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	Hapoel Tirat Karmel
Ironi Nesher	1-1 D	1-1 D
Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Ironi Karmiel

LLDDLWWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/10	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
23/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	9	D
19/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
10/09	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	0	8	W
04/09	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-1	3	4	W
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	7	7	L
19/02	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
13/02	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
05/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	11	4	L
30/01	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	2	6	L

Hapoel Tirat Karmel

LDLDLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	2	5	L
18/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	4-1	3	2	W
09/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	1	6	L
19/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	1	3	L
13/02	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
06/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-2	1	5	L
30/01	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
23/01	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	4	5	L
16/01	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
11/01	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-2	2	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Ironi Karmiel win (57%). Probabilities: Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 57%, draw 25%, Hapoel Tirat Karmel 18%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?

The model expects 2.49 goals (Hapoel Ironi Karmiel 1.66 · Hapoel Tirat Karmel 0.83), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Ironi Karmiel vs Hapoel Tirat Karmel?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.