Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 08/10, 18:30

Prediction: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs FC Tzeirey Tamra

Team pages: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq · FC Tzeirey Tamra

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq2.42

FC Tzeirey Tamra1.09

1X2

66% 20% 14%

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Draw FC Tzeirey Tamra

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWDWLD

FC Tzeirey Tamra 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLLLLWW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 2–0 FC Tzeirey Tamra (2 last)

FC Tzeirey Tamra0-2Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq1-0FC Tzeirey Tamra

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1547 · FC Tzeirey Tamra 1445

	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	Draw	FC Tzeirey Tamra
Our model	66%	19%	15%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (rating 1547 vs 1445).
H2H favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	FC Tzeirey Tamra
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.4	1.5 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.98

2 (+1.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 07:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	6.25 → 6.25	Bet365 6.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
06:49 +11’	1.36	4.50	6.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 2–0–0 FC Tzeirey Tamra

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	FC Tzeirey Tamra	0-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
30/10/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	1-0 HT 0-0	FC Tzeirey Tamra

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ironi Nesher	5	4	1	0	18	4	13
2	Beitar Nahariya	5	4	0	1	9	5	12
3	Sport Club Tira	5	3	2	0	10	4	11
4	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	5	3	1	1	14	7	10
5	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	5	2	3	0	8	3	9
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	4	2	1	1	8	7	7
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	4	1	3	0	7	6	6
8	FC Tzeirey Tamra	5	2	0	3	7	14	6
9	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	4	1	2	1	9	8	5
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
11	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	5	1	2	2	3	6	5
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	5	1	1	3	7	11	4
13	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	3	1	0	2	5	5	3
14	Hapoel Beit Shean	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
15	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	5	1	0	4	7	11	3
16	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	5	0	3	2	4	8	3
17	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm	3	0	2	1	2	6	2
18	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	5	0	1	4	2	14	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	FC Tzeirey Tamra
Hapoel Ironi Arraba	1-1 D	3-0 W
Hapoel Nof HaGalil	2-3 L	3-2 W
Ironi Nesher	3-0 W	1-6 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Tzeirey Tamra (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

WDWLWWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
24/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
18/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	4-2	3	7	W
05/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
27/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
13/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	1-3	2-4	7	4	L
06/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
31/01	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
26/01	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	8	3	W

FC Tzeirey Tamra

LWLWLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-2	1	7	W
23/09	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/09	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-4	3	2	L
09/09	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-2	–	–	L
04/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-6	4	3	L
27/02	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-2	13	4	L
22/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	1	7	W
13/02	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	3	L
06/02	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	9	5	W
30/01	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-4	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs FC Tzeirey Tamra?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Migdal Haemeq win (66%). Probabilities: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 66%, draw 20%, FC Tzeirey Tamra 14%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs FC Tzeirey Tamra?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 2.42 · FC Tzeirey Tamra 1.09), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs FC Tzeirey Tamra?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.