Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 23/10, 10:30

Prediction: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Team pages: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq1.71

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye1.17

1X2

49% 25% 25%

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Draw Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDWLDWD

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 0–4–2 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye (6 last)

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye2-1Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq0-0Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq2-2Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq0-2Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye0-0Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq1-1Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1531 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1473

	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	Draw	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Our model	49%	26%	25%
Market	50%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (rating 1531 vs 1473).
H2H favours Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 11.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.1	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	13/63/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.7	1.8 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.60

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
04:57 +5’	1.80	3.60	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 0–4–2 Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	2-1 HT 2-1	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
05/09/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
03/01/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	2-2 HT 1-2	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
15/03/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	0-2 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
22/12/23 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq
01/09/23 Israel Cup	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	1-1 HT 0-0	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Beitar Nahariya	7	5	1	1	14	6	16
3	Ironi Nesher	6	4	1	1	18	5	13
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	3	4	0	10	4	13
5	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	7	3	1	3	15	13	10
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	6	3	1	2	9	10	10
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	2	3	1	9	6	9
8	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	6	2	3	1	11	9	9
9	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	7	2	2	3	11	11	8
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	2	1	4	9	12	7
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	7	2	0	5	8	18	6
14	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
15	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
16	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	1	2	4	4	15	5
17	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	6	1	0	5	5	14	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye
FC Tzeirey Tamra	1-0 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Nof HaGalil	2-3 L	1-2 L
Ironi Nesher	3-0 W	0-2 L
Maccabi Achi Nazareth	2-4 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Migdal Haemeq

WLWWDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-1	9	7	D
08/10	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
30/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
24/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	7	6	L
18/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	4-2	3	7	W
05/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-2	5	7	D
27/02	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
19/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	3-0	3	9	W
13/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	1-3	2-4	7	4	L
06/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	3-1	5	2	W

Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye

LDDLDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	3-1	0	8	W
08/10	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
08/10	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	–	1-2	–	–	L
30/09	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-2	3	5	L
23/09	Hapoel Tirat Karmel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	1	5	W
19/09	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	1	5	D
09/09	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-2	4	8	L
05/09	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
27/02	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	8	8	D
20/02	Maccabi Achi Nazareth Israel Liga Alef North	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Migdal Haemeq win (49%). Probabilities: Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 49%, draw 25%, Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 25%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Hapoel Migdal Haemeq 1.71 · Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye 1.17), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Migdal Haemeq vs Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.