Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 23/10, 13:00

Prediction: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Ironi Nesher

Team pages: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed · Ironi Nesher

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.2Total

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1.14

Ironi Nesher2.06

1X2

19% 23% 58%

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Draw Ironi Nesher

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLLLLWLDW

Ironi Nesher 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWDWLW

Head-to-head

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–1–4 Ironi Nesher (5 last)

Ironi Nesher3-2Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed0-3Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher3-1Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed1-1Ironi Nesher
Ironi Nesher2-1Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1451 · Ironi Nesher 1566

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Draw	Ironi Nesher
Our model	19%	23%	58%
Market	19%	24%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ironi Nesher (rating 1451 vs 1566).
H2H favours Ironi Nesher: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Ironi Nesher
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.5	2.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/70/10%	70/20/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.1	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	6.2 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.80

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
04:55 +8’	4.75	3.80	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 0–1–4 Ironi Nesher

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/11/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	3-2 HT 2-1	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
24/12/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	0-3	Ironi Nesher
03/05/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	3-1	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
09/02/24 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	1-1 HT 0-1	Ironi Nesher
06/01/23 Israel Liga Alef North	Ironi Nesher	2-1 HT 1-0	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Beitar Nahariya	7	5	1	1	14	6	16
3	Ironi Nesher	6	4	1	1	18	5	13
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	3	4	0	10	4	13
5	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	7	3	1	3	15	13	10
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	6	3	1	2	9	10	10
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	2	3	1	9	6	9
8	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	6	2	3	1	11	9	9
9	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	7	2	2	3	11	11	8
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	2	1	4	9	12	7
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	7	2	0	5	8	18	6
14	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
15	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
16	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	1	2	4	4	15	5
17	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	6	1	0	5	5	14	3

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	Ironi Nesher
Hapoel Ironi Arraba	4-1 W	3-1 W
Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	2-4 L	0-3 L
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	1-3 L	4-0 W
Sport Club Tira	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed

DWLLLLWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
09/10	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
01/10	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-2	4	8	L
24/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	4-1	9	6	W
18/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-4	4	7	L
09/09	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-3	5	2	L
04/09	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
20/02	Tzeirey Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	1-2	6	7	L
13/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
06/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	4	3	D

Ironi Nesher

WLDWWWDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	4-0	4	5	W
08/10	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-2	4	9	L
30/09	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	3-0	4-1	4	3	W
23/09	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	3	9	D
18/09	Maccabi Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	5-1	6	4	W
09/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	2-0	3	8	W
04/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	2-0	6-1	7	3	W
27/02	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	8	D
19/02	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	0-3	2	9	L
13/02	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	1	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Ironi Nesher?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ironi Nesher win (58%). Probabilities: Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 19%, draw 23%, Ironi Nesher 58%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Ironi Nesher?

The model expects 3.2 goals (Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed 1.14 · Ironi Nesher 2.06), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed vs Ironi Nesher?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.