Football · Israel Liga Alef North · 23/10, 10:30

Prediction: Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Team pages: Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik1.93

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm1.46

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Draw Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWWLLL

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDDWDDDL

Head-to-head

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 2–1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm (6 last)

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik0-0Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3-5Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm2-0Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik0-2Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Hapoel Umm al-Fahm3-0Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik2-1Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 1505 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1481

	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	Draw	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Our model	48%	24%	28%
Market	47%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Hapoel Umm al-Fahm: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	11/67/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.4 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
04:57 +6’	1.91	3.50	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 2–1–3 Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/02/26 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	0-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
01/11/25 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3-5 HT 1-2	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
28/01/24 Israel Cup	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	2-0 HT 0-0	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
05/04/19 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	0-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm
06/12/18 Israel Liga Alef North	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	3-0 HT 1-0	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik
23/03/18 Israel Liga Alef North	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	2-1 HT 0-0	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

Standings · Israel Liga Alef North · Liga Alef 26/27, North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Tira	7	5	2	0	13	5	17
2	Beitar Nahariya	7	5	1	1	14	6	16
3	Ironi Nesher	6	4	1	1	18	5	13
4	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel	7	3	4	0	10	4	13
5	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik	7	3	1	3	15	13	10
6	Hapoel Nof HaGalil	6	3	1	2	9	10	10
7	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm	6	2	3	1	9	6	9
8	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq	6	2	3	1	11	9	9
9	Hapoel Beit Shean	5	2	2	1	8	4	8
10	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye	7	2	2	3	11	11	8
11	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed	7	2	1	4	9	12	7
12	Hapoel Bnei Jat United	7	1	3	3	8	12	6
13	FC Tzeirey Tamra	7	2	0	5	8	18	6
14	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
15	Hapoel Bnei Musmus	6	1	2	3	4	8	5
16	Hapoel Ironi Arraba	7	1	2	4	4	15	5
17	Hapoel Tirat Karmel	6	1	0	5	5	14	3

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik

LWDDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	Ironi Nesher Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-4	8	5	L
09/10	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
30/09	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
24/09	Hapoel Bnei Jat United Israel Liga Alef North	3-0	5-3	4	4	W
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Arraba Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	4-0	4	2	W
09/09	Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
05/09	Hapoel Migdal Haemeq Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	2-2	7	7	D
26/02	Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	4	D
21/02	Maccabi Neve Shaanan Eldad Israel Liga Alef North	2-1	5-3	2	3	W
12/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-2	1-2	1	4	L

Hapoel Umm al-Fahm

WLLDDWDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Sport Club Tira Israel Liga Alef North	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
09/10	Beitar Nahariya Israel Liga Alef North	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
01/10	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	7	6	D
19/09	Hapoel Ironi Baqa Al Gharbiyye Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	3-3	13	5	D
09/09	FC Tzeirey Tamra Israel Liga Alef North	–	2-1	–	–	W
05/09	Hapoel Nof HaGalil Israel Liga Alef North	1-1	2-2	8	4	D
26/02	Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
21/02	Hapoel Bnei Musmus Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	0-2	2	7	L
12/02	Hapoel Beit Shean Israel Liga Alef North	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
05/02	Hapoel Ironi Karmiel Israel Liga Alef North	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik win (47%). Probabilities: Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 47%, draw 25%, Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 28%.

How many goals are expected in Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik 1.93 · Hapoel Umm al-Fahm 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Maccabi Kiryat Ata Bialik vs Hapoel Umm al-Fahm?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.