Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 09/09, 18:40

Prediction: Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs Hapoel Marmorek

Team pages: Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.01Total

Hapoel Holon Yaniv1.08

Hapoel Marmorek0.94

1X2

39% 30% 31%

Hapoel Holon Yaniv Draw Hapoel Marmorek

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 67% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLLLWDDD

Hapoel Marmorek 4-6-0 (W-D-L)

DDWDWWDDDW

Head-to-head

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 2–1–3 Hapoel Marmorek (6 last)

Hapoel Holon Yaniv1-2Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek1-0Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-2Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek1-1Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv3-0Hapoel Marmorek
Hapoel Marmorek0-2Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1447 · Hapoel Marmorek 1559

	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	Draw	Hapoel Marmorek
Our model	37%	33%	30%
Market	40%	27%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.01 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hapoel Marmorek (rating 1447 vs 1559).
H2H favours Hapoel Marmorek: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	Hapoel Marmorek
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	1 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.9	0.9 / 2.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.4	5.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.30

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 1.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
18:31 +6’	2.25	3.30	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 2–1–3 Hapoel Marmorek

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/01/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	1-2 HT 1-0	Hapoel Marmorek
19/09/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Marmorek	1-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
13/02/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-2 HT 0-0	Hapoel Marmorek
15/10/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Marmorek	1-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
16/02/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	3-0 HT 1-0	Hapoel Marmorek
03/10/23 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Marmorek	0-2 HT 0-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Maccabi Yavne	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Sport Club Dimona	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	MS Jerusalem	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Hapoel Herzliya	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
7	Hapoel Marmorek	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
8	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
12	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Kfar Saba 1928	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Hapoel Hadera	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
15	AS Nordia Jerusalem	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
15	Ironi Beit Shemesh	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
17	Tzeirey Tira	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
18	Hapoel Azor	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	Hapoel Marmorek
Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	0-0 D	1-1 D
FC Beitar Yavne	1-0 W	2-0 W
Hapoel Azor	0-2 L	0-0 D
MS Jerusalem	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Marmorek (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hapoel Holon Yaniv

DLLLLLWDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/02	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/02	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
22/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	2-3	2	8	L
16/01	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/01	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
06/01	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	2-3	3-3	6	4	D

Hapoel Marmorek

DDWDWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/09	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	0	9	W
27/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-1	1	7	D
20/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	3	2	D
13/02	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
05/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	2-0	2	8	W
30/01	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	2-1	1	7	W
23/01	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
16/01	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/01	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/01	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	5	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs Hapoel Marmorek?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hapoel Holon Yaniv win (39%). Probabilities: Hapoel Holon Yaniv 39%, draw 30%, Hapoel Marmorek 31%.

How many goals are expected in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs Hapoel Marmorek?

The model expects 2.01 goals (Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1.08 · Hapoel Marmorek 0.94), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hapoel Holon Yaniv vs Hapoel Marmorek?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.