Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 17/09, 17:00

Prediction: Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Team pages: Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.57Total

Shimshon Tel Aviv1.51

Hapoel Holon Yaniv1.06

1X2

47% 28% 25%

Shimshon Tel Aviv Draw Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Shimshon Tel Aviv 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLWLDWWD

Hapoel Holon Yaniv 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLLLWDDDW

Head-to-head

Shimshon Tel Aviv 4–1–1 Hapoel Holon Yaniv (6 last)

Shimshon Tel Aviv2-0Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv2-4Shimshon Tel Aviv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-1Shimshon Tel Aviv
Shimshon Tel Aviv1-1Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Holon Yaniv0-1Shimshon Tel Aviv
Shimshon Tel Aviv0-1Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Shimshon Tel Aviv 1516 · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1457

	Shimshon Tel Aviv	Draw	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Our model	47%	28%	25%
Market	47%	28%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.57 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Shimshon Tel Aviv (rating 1516 vs 1457).
H2H favours Shimshon Tel Aviv: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Shimshon Tel Aviv	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.9	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.5	4.4 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.25

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:15 +8’	1.91	3.25	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Shimshon Tel Aviv 4–1–1 Hapoel Holon Yaniv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/02/26 Israel Liga Alef South	Shimshon Tel Aviv	2-0 HT 0-0	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
05/10/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	2-4 HT 1-2	Shimshon Tel Aviv
17/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-1 HT 0-0	Shimshon Tel Aviv
17/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Shimshon Tel Aviv	1-1 HT 0-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
26/02/24 Israel Liga Alef South	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	0-1 HT 0-0	Shimshon Tel Aviv
21/09/23 Israel Liga Alef South	Shimshon Tel Aviv	0-1 HT 0-1	Hapoel Holon Yaniv

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Hapoel Herzliya	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
2	Sport Club Dimona	2	2	0	0	3	0	6
3	Shimshon Tel Aviv	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
4	MS Jerusalem	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
4	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
6	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
7	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
7	Kfar Saba 1928	2	1	0	1	5	3	3
9	Maccabi Yavne	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
10	Hapoel Marmorek	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
11	Hapoel Azor	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
12	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	2	0	2	0	2	2	2
13	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Hapoel Hadera	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
14	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	AS Nordia Jerusalem	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
17	Tzeirey Tira	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
17	Ironi Beit Shemesh	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Shimshon Tel Aviv	Hapoel Holon Yaniv
Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	4-2 W	0-0 D
Maccabi Yavne	1-2 L	1-1 D
Maccabi Kiryat Gat	1-3 L	2-3 L
Sport Club Dimona	0-1 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hapoel Holon Yaniv (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Shimshon Tel Aviv

DDLLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Hapoel Hadera Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	2-2	4	10	D
03/09	Ironi Beit Shemesh Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	2-0	8	3	W
26/02	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	4-2	2	2	W
19/02	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
12/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-2	1-2	3	9	L
05/02	Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	2-0	3	6	W
31/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-3	4	5	L
23/01	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-1	8	7	L
17/01	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
09/01	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	6	6	D

Hapoel Holon Yaniv

LLLLLWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
04/09	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
27/02	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
20/02	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	4	2	D
13/02	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-0	6	5	W
05/02	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-2	6	7	L
22/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	2-3	2	8	L
16/01	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	0-2	4	2	L
11/01	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	5	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Shimshon Tel Aviv win (47%). Probabilities: Shimshon Tel Aviv 47%, draw 28%, Hapoel Holon Yaniv 25%.

How many goals are expected in Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

The model expects 2.57 goals (Shimshon Tel Aviv 1.51 · Hapoel Holon Yaniv 1.06), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Shimshon Tel Aviv vs Hapoel Holon Yaniv?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.