Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 18/09, 10:55

Prediction: AS Nordia Jerusalem vs MS Jerusalem

Team pages: AS Nordia Jerusalem · MS Jerusalem

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.46Total

AS Nordia Jerusalem1.26

MS Jerusalem2.2

1X2

20% 22% 58%

AS Nordia Jerusalem Draw MS Jerusalem

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

AS Nordia Jerusalem 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

LDDLDLLLLL

MS Jerusalem 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWLWDWWWD

Head-to-head

AS Nordia Jerusalem 3–3 MS Jerusalem (6 last)

AS Nordia Jerusalem1-2MS Jerusalem
MS Jerusalem4-2AS Nordia Jerusalem
AS Nordia Jerusalem3-1MS Jerusalem
MS Jerusalem0-2AS Nordia Jerusalem
AS Nordia Jerusalem0-2MS Jerusalem
MS Jerusalem0-2AS Nordia Jerusalem

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AS Nordia Jerusalem 1396 · MS Jerusalem 1550

	AS Nordia Jerusalem	Draw	MS Jerusalem
Our model	20%	22%	58%
Market	20%	23%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MS Jerusalem (rating 1396 vs 1550).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AS Nordia Jerusalem	MS Jerusalem
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	2.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/33/56%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	3.6 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.50

X4.00

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.85

2 (-1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 10:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.75 ★
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.53 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
07:27 +45’	4.75	4.00	1.53
10:04 +4’	4.50▼	4.00	1.57▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:08 +74’	5.12	4.03	1.46
07:02 +48’	4.47▼	3.77▼	1.57▲
09:00 +69’	4.75▲	3.91▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AS Nordia Jerusalem 3–0–3 MS Jerusalem

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/02/26 Israel Liga Alef South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	1-2 HT 0-1	MS Jerusalem
17/10/25 Israel Liga Alef South	MS Jerusalem	4-2 HT 2-1	AS Nordia Jerusalem
10/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	3-1 HT 2-0	MS Jerusalem
13/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South	MS Jerusalem	0-2 HT 0-1	AS Nordia Jerusalem
20/01/23 Israel Liga Bet South	AS Nordia Jerusalem	0-2 HT 0-1	MS Jerusalem
02/10/22 Israel Liga Bet South	MS Jerusalem	0-2 HT 0-1	AS Nordia Jerusalem

Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sport Club Dimona	3	3	0	0	4	0	9
2	Shimshon Tel Aviv	3	2	1	0	7	3	7
3	Maccabi Ironi Sderot	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
4	Hapoel Herzliya	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
5	MS Jerusalem	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Hapoel Hadera	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
8	Hapoel Holon Yaniv	3	1	1	1	2	3	4
9	Maccabi Yavne	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
10	Kfar Saba 1928	3	1	0	2	5	4	3
11	Hapoel Marmorek	2	1	0	1	1	1	3
12	Hapoel Azor	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
13	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
14	Hapoel Mahane Yehuda	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
15	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	AS Nordia Jerusalem	2	0	0	2	1	5	0
17	Ironi Beit Shemesh	2	0	0	2	1	6	0
18	Tzeirey Tira	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AS Nordia Jerusalem	MS Jerusalem
Hapoel Herzliya	1-3 L	5-1 W
Sport Club Dimona	0-2 L	4-1 W
Hapoel Azor	1-2 L	1-1 D
Kfar Saba 1928	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AS Nordia Jerusalem

LDDLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-3	4	5	L
03/09	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	–	0-2	–	–	L
26/02	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	3	7	L
20/02	MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	3	6	L
13/02	Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South	1-3	2-5	2	7	L
06/02	Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	2-2	8	6	D
31/01	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
23/01	Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
17/01	Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
09/01	Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	0-2	2	0	L

MS Jerusalem

DLWLWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-1	11	5	D
04/09	Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South	2-0	2-1	9	4	W
27/02	Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	4-1	3	6	W
20/02	AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	2-1	6	6	W
13/02	Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	3-3	6	5	D
06/02	Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South	2-1	5-1	6	5	W
30/01	Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
23/01	FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	3-0	3	6	W
16/01	Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
09/01	Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South	1-0	1-1	5	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AS Nordia Jerusalem vs MS Jerusalem?

According to our model, the most likely result is an MS Jerusalem win (58%). Probabilities: AS Nordia Jerusalem 20%, draw 22%, MS Jerusalem 58%.

How many goals are expected in AS Nordia Jerusalem vs MS Jerusalem?

The model expects 3.46 goals (AS Nordia Jerusalem 1.26 · MS Jerusalem 2.2), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in AS Nordia Jerusalem vs MS Jerusalem?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.