Football · Chile Primera B · 30/09, 23:00
Prediction: Union San Felipe vs San Luis Quillota
Team pages: Union San Felipe · San Luis Quillota
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.41Total
Union San Felipe0.98
San Luis Quillota1.43
1X2
Union San Felipe
Draw
San Luis Quillota
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Union San Felipe
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
San Luis Quillota
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Union San Felipe
2–1–3
San Luis Quillota
(6 last)
- San Luis Quillota4-0Union San Felipe
- Union San Felipe1-0San Luis Quillota
- San Luis Quillota2-1Union San Felipe
- Union San Felipe0-0San Luis Quillota
- San Luis Quillota3-1Union San Felipe
- San Luis Quillota1-2Union San Felipe
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Union San Felipe 1427 · San Luis Quillota 1579
| Union San Felipe | Draw | San Luis Quillota | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 25% | 29% | 46% |
| Market | 26% | 27% | 47% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Luis Quillota (rating 1427 vs 1579).
- H2H favours San Luis Quillota: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Union San Felipe | San Luis Quillota | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.5 / 1.6 | 1.5 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.1 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/60/40% | 60/20/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.7 | 2.7 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 4.6 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Union San Felipe 2–1–3 San Luis Quillota
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/26 Chile Primera B | San Luis Quillota | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Union San Felipe |
| 16/08/25 Chile Primera B | Union San Felipe | 1-0 HT 1-0 | San Luis Quillota |
| 12/04/25 Chile Primera B | San Luis Quillota | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Union San Felipe |
| 27/07/24 Chile Primera B | Union San Felipe | 0-0 HT 0-0 | San Luis Quillota |
| 11/03/24 Chile Primera B | San Luis Quillota | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Union San Felipe |
| 19/06/23 Chile Primera B | San Luis Quillota | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Union San Felipe |
Standings · Chile Primera B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cobreloa | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 43 | 27 | 45 |
| 2 | Santiago Wanderers | 25 | 12 | 8 | 5 | 40 | 26 | 44 |
| 3 | San Luis Quillota | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 38 | 29 | 41 |
| 4 | Magallanes | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 38 | 40 |
| 5 | CD Antofagasta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 42 | 26 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Recoleta | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 38 |
| 7 | San Marcos De Arica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 36 |
| 8 | Union Espanola | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 32 | 36 |
| 9 | Deportes Copiapo | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 39 | 34 |
| 10 | Puerto Montt | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 34 |
| 11 | Deportes Temuco | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 40 | 35 | 32 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 25 | 6 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 28 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 22 | 38 | 24 |
| 14 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 25 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 26 | 38 | 22 |
| 15 | Union San Felipe | 24 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 16 | 41 | 22 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 25 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 23 | 40 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Union San Felipe | San Luis Quillota |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Copiapo | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 0-0 D | 2-0 W |
| Curico Unido | 0-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Cobreloa | 0-1 L | 4-2 W |
| San Marcos De Arica | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| CD Antofagasta | 1-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Santiago Wanderers | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 5 L | 5 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: San Luis Quillota (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Union San Felipe
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-4 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 05/09 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 29/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 24/08 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 13/08 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 01/08 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 1-5 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/06 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 4 | D |
San Luis Quillota
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/09 | CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 05/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 30/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 25/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 13 | 5 | L |
| 18/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 14/08 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 09/08 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 25/07 | Curico Unido Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 06/06 | San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Union San Felipe vs San Luis Quillota?
According to our model, the most likely result is an San Luis Quillota win (47%). Probabilities: Union San Felipe 25%, draw 28%, San Luis Quillota 47%.
How many goals are expected in Union San Felipe vs San Luis Quillota?
The model expects 2.41 goals (Union San Felipe 0.98 · San Luis Quillota 1.43), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Union San Felipe vs San Luis Quillota?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.