Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 06/09, 12:00

Prediction: UD Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.05Total

UD Torre del Mar1.3

Churriana de la Vega CF0.75

1X2

49% 29% 21%

UD Torre del Mar Draw Churriana de la Vega CF

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 66% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

UD Torre del Mar 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWDDWLL

Churriana de la Vega CF 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWLDWD

Head-to-head

UD Torre del Mar 1–1–0 Churriana de la Vega CF (2 last)

Churriana de la Vega CF0-1UD Torre del Mar
UD Torre del Mar1-1Churriana de la Vega CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · UD Torre del Mar 1502 · Churriana de la Vega CF 1500

	UD Torre del Mar	Draw	Churriana de la Vega CF
Our model	48%	31%	20%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.05 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	UD Torre del Mar	Churriana de la Vega CF
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/75/0%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Pinn 1.99 ★
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.7% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:01 +13’	1.80	3.25	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:43 +31’	1.99	2.88	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · UD Torre del Mar 1–1–0 Churriana de la Vega CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	Churriana de la Vega CF	0-1 HT 0-0	UD Torre del Mar
06/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	UD Torre del Mar	1-1	Churriana de la Vega CF

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Porcuna CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Malagueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Mancha Real	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alhaurino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cantoria 2017	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Huetor Vega	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Malaga City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Churriana de la Vega CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Recreativo Granada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Marbelli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almeria B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD San Pedro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Torre del Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	UD Torre del Mar	Churriana de la Vega CF
Motril	2-1 W	1-1 D
CD El Palo	1-1 D	2-0 W
UD San Pedro	0-0 D	1-1 D
Alhaurino	1-0 W	0-4 L
Ciudad Torredonjimeno	0-0 D	1-0 W
Recreativo Granada	3-2 W	2-2 D
CD Huetor Vega	1-1 D	1-4 L
Record vs common	3 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: UD Torre del Mar (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

UD Torre del Mar

DWDDWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/05	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-1	–	–	L
26/04	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-1	6	7	W
19/04	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/04	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
05/04	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
01/04	FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
28/03	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/03	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	3-2	3	5	W
15/03	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	2	2	D

Churriana de la Vega CF

LWDLDWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Motril Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
10/05	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-0	7	1	W
03/05	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-4	–	–	L
19/04	Ciudad Torredonjimeno Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/04	Recreativo Granada Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
05/04	CD Huetor Vega Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	1-4	8	3	L
28/03	CD Huetor Tajar Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-1	3	3	W
15/03	Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in UD Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a UD Torre del Mar win (49%). Probabilities: UD Torre del Mar 49%, draw 29%, Churriana de la Vega CF 21%.

How many goals are expected in UD Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

The model expects 2.05 goals (UD Torre del Mar 1.3 · Churriana de la Vega CF 0.75), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in UD Torre del Mar vs Churriana de la Vega CF?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.