Football · Spain Tercera Group 9 · 05/09, 19:30

Prediction: CD Huetor Vega vs Motril

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.11Total

CD Huetor Vega0.9

Motril1.21

1X2

27% 30% 43%

CD Huetor Vega Draw Motril

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 65% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Huetor Vega 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDDLWDLDLW

Motril 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWLDWD

Head-to-head

CD Huetor Vega 1–1–4 Motril (6 last)

CD Huetor Vega1-1Motril
Motril1-0CD Huetor Vega
Motril3-1CD Huetor Vega
CD Huetor Vega1-0Motril
Motril1-0CD Huetor Vega
CD Huetor Vega0-2Motril

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Huetor Vega 1484 · Motril 1519

	CD Huetor Vega	Draw	Motril
Our model	26%	32%	42%
Market	28%	29%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.11 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Motril: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Huetor Vega	Motril
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/29/43%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	1.2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.3	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.10

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.64 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:50 +4’	3.25	3.10	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
20:32 +2’	3.64	2.94	2.04

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Huetor Vega 1–1–4 Motril

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 Spain Tercera Group 9	CD Huetor Vega	1-1	Motril
21/09/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Motril	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Huetor Vega
06/04/25 Spain Tercera Group 9	Motril	3-1 HT 2-0	CD Huetor Vega
24/11/24 Spain Tercera Group 9	CD Huetor Vega	1-0	Motril
04/02/24 Spain Tercera Group 9	Motril	1-0	CD Huetor Vega
24/09/23 Spain Tercera Group 9	CD Huetor Vega	0-2 HT 0-1	Motril

Standings · Spain Tercera Group 9

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Arenas	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Porcuna CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Malagueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Atletico Mancha Real	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alhaurino	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Atletico de Marbella Paraiso	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cantoria 2017	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	CD Huetor Vega	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Malaga City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Motril	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Churriana de la Vega CF	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Recreativo Granada	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC Marbelli	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Almeria B	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Melilla	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD San Pedro	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	UD Torre del Mar	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ciudad Torredonjimeno	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Huetor Vega	Motril
Martos CD	4-0 W	2-0 W
CP Mijas	0-3 L	2-2 D
FC Marbelli	1-1 D	0-0 D
Churriana de la Vega CF	4-1 W	1-1 D
Atletico Porcuna CF	2-2 D	2-1 W
UD Torre del Mar	1-1 D	1-2 L
CD El Palo	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 4 D 1 L	3 W 3 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Huetor Vega

DDDLWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9	–	4-0	–	–	W
03/05	CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-3	–	–	L
26/04	FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
19/04	Atletico Mancha Real Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	1-2	7	9	L
12/04	Arenas Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
05/04	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
29/03	CD Torreperogil Spain Tercera Group 9	0-2	0-2	8	5	L
22/03	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-2	2-2	5	8	D
15/03	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	1-1	6	2	D
08/03	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	–	1-1	–	–	D

Motril

WDLDWWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/05	Churriana de la Vega CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-1	3	5	D
10/05	Atletico Porcuna CF Spain Tercera Group 9	1-1	2-1	5	1	W
06/05	UD Melilla B Spain Tercera Group 9	–	0-0	–	–	D
26/04	UD Torre del Mar Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-2	4	7	L
19/04	Martos CD Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
12/04	CD El Palo Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-0	8	6	W
05/04	CP Mijas Spain Tercera Group 9	1-2	2-2	2	5	D
29/03	UD San Pedro Spain Tercera Group 9	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
22/03	FC Marbelli Spain Tercera Group 9	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
15/03	Alhaurino Spain Tercera Group 9	1-0	1-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Huetor Vega vs Motril?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motril win (43%). Probabilities: CD Huetor Vega 27%, draw 30%, Motril 43%.

How many goals are expected in CD Huetor Vega vs Motril?

The model expects 2.11 goals (CD Huetor Vega 0.9 · Motril 1.21), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Huetor Vega vs Motril?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.