Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 06/09, 22:00
Prediction: Orense vs Guayaquil City
Team pages: Orense · Guayaquil City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
Orense1.52
Guayaquil City0.8
1X2
Orense
Draw
Guayaquil City
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Orense
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Guayaquil City
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Orense
3–1–2
Guayaquil City
(6 last)
- Guayaquil City0-1Orense
- Guayaquil City1-0Orense
- Orense3-2Guayaquil City
- Guayaquil City1-1Orense
- Orense0-1Guayaquil City
- Orense2-0Guayaquil City
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Orense 1448 · Guayaquil City 1499
| Orense | Draw | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 27% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guayaquil City (rating 1448 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Orense: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Orense | Guayaquil City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.8 | 1.1 / 1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 11/78/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 5.2 | 1.4 / 2.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.4 / 0.4 | 3.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Orense 3–1–2 Guayaquil City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Orense |
| 26/08/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Orense |
| 03/04/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 3-2 HT 2-2 | Guayaquil City |
| 24/10/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Guayaquil City | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Orense |
| 28/05/22 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Guayaquil City |
| 18/09/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Orense | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Guayaquil City |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 67 | 30 | 68 |
| 2 | Macara | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 48 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 27 | 48 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 26 | 45 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 42 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 42 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 38 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Libertad | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 31 | 38 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 37 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 31 | 36 |
| 11 | Emelec | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 35 | 35 |
| 13 | Orense | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 28 | 9 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 39 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 29 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 41 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Orense | Guayaquil City |
|---|---|---|
| Leones FC | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Macara | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Barcelona Guayaquil | 0-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Club Atletico Libertad | 0-3 L | 2-2 D |
| Emelec | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 0 W 4 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Guayaquil City (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Orense
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 09/08 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 01/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 26/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 2-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 23/07 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 20/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 17/07 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 8 | L |
Guayaquil City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 29/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 2-2 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Emelec Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 9 | L |
| 27/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 23/07 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 19/07 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 16/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Orense vs Guayaquil City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Orense win (53%). Probabilities: Orense 53%, draw 28%, Guayaquil City 19%.
How many goals are expected in Orense vs Guayaquil City?
The model expects 2.32 goals (Orense 1.52 · Guayaquil City 0.8), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Orense vs Guayaquil City?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.