Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 06/09, 22:00
Prediction: Emelec vs Manta FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.26Total
Emelec1.64
Manta FC0.62
1X2
Emelec
Draw
Manta FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
1-0 16%
Recent form · 10 last
Emelec
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Manta FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Emelec
3–3–0
Manta FC
(6 last)
- Manta FC0-0Emelec
- Manta FC2-4Emelec
- Emelec1-1Manta FC
- Manta FC2-2Emelec
- Emelec4-0Manta FC
- Manta FC0-4Emelec
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emelec 1488 · Manta FC 1439
| Emelec | Draw | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 26% | 13% |
| Market | 62% | 25% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.26 goals · Bet365 line 2 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 54%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emelec (rating 1488 vs 1439).
- H2H favours Emelec: 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | Manta FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.5 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 0.9 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.2 | 3.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 3–3–0 Manta FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 26/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 2-4 HT 0-4 | Emelec |
| 07/04/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
| 25/01/25 America Friendlies | Manta FC | 2-2 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 28/11/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 4-0 HT 0-0 | Manta FC |
| 18/07/21 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Manta FC | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Emelec |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 28 | 22 | 2 | 4 | 67 | 30 | 68 |
| 2 | Macara | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 48 |
| 3 | SD Aucas | 28 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 32 | 27 | 48 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 48 | 26 | 45 |
| 5 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 28 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 30 | 23 | 42 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 22 | 42 |
| 7 | Leones FC | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 38 |
| 8 | Club Atletico Libertad | 28 | 10 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 31 | 38 |
| 9 | Mushuc Runa | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 33 | 34 | 37 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 27 | 31 | 36 |
| 11 | Emelec | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 36 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 28 | 10 | 5 | 13 | 24 | 35 | 35 |
| 13 | Orense | 28 | 8 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 42 | 30 |
| 14 | Tecnico Universitario | 28 | 9 | 2 | 17 | 26 | 39 | 29 |
| 15 | Delfin SC | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 29 | 27 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 28 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 41 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | Manta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Leones FC | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| LDU Quito | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Tecnico Universitario | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Guayaquil City | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Mushuc Runa | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Emelec (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 31/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 24/08 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 02/08 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/07 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/07 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 2 | D |
| 20/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
Manta FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 3-4 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 22/08 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-3 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/08 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Mushuc Runa Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 26/07 | Tecnico Universitario Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 23/07 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 19/07 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 15/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Manta FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (61%). Probabilities: Emelec 61%, draw 26%, Manta FC 13%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Manta FC?
The model expects 2.26 goals (Emelec 1.64 · Manta FC 0.62), with a 53% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs Manta FC?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.