Football · Greece Super League 1 · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika

Team pages: PAOK Salonika · Aris Salonika

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

PAOK Salonika2.23

Aris Salonika0.93

1X2

66% 21% 13%

PAOK Salonika Draw Aris Salonika

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

PAOK Salonika 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WLDLWDDDWW

Aris Salonika 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LDWWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

PAOK Salonika 2–3–1 Aris Salonika (6 last)

Aris Salonika0-0PAOK Salonika
PAOK Salonika3-1Aris Salonika
Aris Salonika1-1PAOK Salonika
Aris Salonika0-0PAOK Salonika
PAOK Salonika0-1Aris Salonika
Aris Salonika1-2PAOK Salonika

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · PAOK Salonika 1555 · Aris Salonika 1564

	PAOK Salonika	Draw	Aris Salonika
Our model	66%	21%	13%
Market	66%	21%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours PAOK Salonika: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	PAOK Salonika	Aris Salonika
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.5 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.33

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +4’	1.40	4.33	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · PAOK Salonika 2–3–1 Aris Salonika

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/02/26 Greece Super League 1	Aris Salonika	0-0 HT 0-0	PAOK Salonika
07/12/25 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	3-1 HT 2-1	Aris Salonika
03/12/25 Greece Cup	Aris Salonika	1-1 HT 0-0	PAOK Salonika
19/01/25 Greece Super League 1	Aris Salonika	0-0 HT 0-0	PAOK Salonika
29/09/24 Greece Super League 1	PAOK Salonika	0-1 HT 0-0	Aris Salonika
19/05/24 Greece Super League 1	Aris Salonika	1-2 HT 0-1	PAOK Salonika

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEK Athens	3	2	1	0	10	1	7
2	Olympiacos	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	PAOK Salonika	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Panetolikos	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Aris Salonika	3	2	0	1	5	8	6
6	Panathinaikos	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	OFI Crete	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	Volos NFC	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
9	Kifisias FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Iraklis 1908 FC	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
11	Atromitos Athinon	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
12	Kalamata	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
13	Asteras Tripolis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Levadiakos	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	PAOK Salonika	Aris Salonika
Levadiakos	4-0 W	3-0 W
AEK Athens	1-1 D	0-5 L
Volos NFC	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: PAOK Salonika (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

PAOK Salonika

WLDLWDDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
23/08	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-0	3	0	W
17/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
13/05	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
10/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	1	7	D
03/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	1-1	3-1	3	2	W
19/04	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
05/04	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
22/03	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
15/03	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	1-0	3-0	9	4	W

Aris Salonika

LDWWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	AEK Athens Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-5	2	3	L
30/08	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-1	3	7	W
22/08	Kalamata Greece Super League 1	1-1	3-2	10	7	W
17/05	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	0-0	3-0	11	8	W
13/05	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
10/05	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	2-0	3-1	5	2	W
03/05	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-0	7	6	W
18/04	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	1-2	3-2	4	10	W
05/04	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/03	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-2	7	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika?

According to our model, the most likely result is a PAOK Salonika win (66%). Probabilities: PAOK Salonika 66%, draw 21%, Aris Salonika 13%.

How many goals are expected in PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika?

The model expects 3.15 goals (PAOK Salonika 2.23 · Aris Salonika 0.93), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in PAOK Salonika vs Aris Salonika?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.