Football · Greece Super League 1 · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis

Team pages: OFI Crete · Asteras Tripolis

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.52Total

OFI Crete1.45

Asteras Tripolis1.07

1X2

44% 29% 27%

OFI Crete Draw Asteras Tripolis

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

OFI Crete 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLLWWLWW

Asteras Tripolis 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWLLL

Head-to-head

OFI Crete 2–1–3 Asteras Tripolis (6 last)

OFI Crete4-0Asteras Tripolis
OFI Crete2-0Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis3-0OFI Crete
OFI Crete0-2Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis2-1OFI Crete
OFI Crete1-1Asteras Tripolis

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · OFI Crete 1579 · Asteras Tripolis 1465

	OFI Crete	Draw	Asteras Tripolis
Our model	44%	29%	27%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.52 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours OFI Crete (rating 1579 vs 1465).
H2H favours Asteras Tripolis: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	OFI Crete	Asteras Tripolis
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.2	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.5	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3	2 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.1	5 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:09 +12’	2.10	3.20	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · OFI Crete 2–1–3 Asteras Tripolis

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/01/26 Greece Super League 1	OFI Crete	4-0 HT 2-0	Asteras Tripolis
07/01/26 Greece Cup	OFI Crete	2-0 HT 1-0	Asteras Tripolis
03/11/25 Greece Super League 1	Asteras Tripolis	3-0 HT 1-0	OFI Crete
26/04/25 Greece Super League 1	OFI Crete	0-2 HT 0-0	Asteras Tripolis
13/04/25 Greece Super League 1	Asteras Tripolis	2-1 HT 1-1	OFI Crete
02/04/25 Greece Cup	OFI Crete	1-1 HT 0-1	Asteras Tripolis

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Panetolikos	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
3	OFI Crete	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
4	AEK Athens	3	2	1	0	10	1	7
5	Olympiacos	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
6	PAOK Salonika	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
7	Aris Salonika	3	2	0	1	5	8	6
8	Iraklis 1908 FC	4	1	2	1	4	6	5
9	Atromitos Athinon	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
10	Volos NFC	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
11	Kalamata	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
12	Kifisias FC	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
13	Asteras Tripolis	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
14	Levadiakos	3	0	0	3	0	8	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	OFI Crete	Asteras Tripolis
Olympiacos	1-0 W	0-1 L
Kifisias FC	2-0 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: OFI Crete (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

OFI Crete

DWLLLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
06/09	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-0	1	4	W
30/08	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-2	1	7	L
23/08	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-0	5	4	W
17/05	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
13/05	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	2-0	2-3	1	13	L
10/05	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-2	1-3	5	2	L
03/05	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-2	3	6	L
18/04	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-0	3	6	W
05/04	Volos NFC Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	5	5	D

Asteras Tripolis

WLWDWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-2	7	6	L
30/08	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
23/08	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
21/05	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
16/05	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
12/05	Panserraikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-0	11	10	W
09/05	Larissa Greece Super League 1	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
02/05	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	3-0	4-2	4	4	W
26/04	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	1-1	1-2	10	2	L
22/04	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-1	1	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?

According to our model, the most likely result is a OFI Crete win (44%). Probabilities: OFI Crete 44%, draw 29%, Asteras Tripolis 27%.

How many goals are expected in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?

The model expects 2.52 goals (OFI Crete 1.45 · Asteras Tripolis 1.07), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in OFI Crete vs Asteras Tripolis?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.