Football · Greece Super League 1 · 19/09, 17:00

Prediction: Volos NFC vs AEK Athens

Team pages: Volos NFC · AEK Athens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Volos NFC0.68

AEK Athens2.13

1X2

10% 20% 70%

Volos NFC Draw AEK Athens

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-2 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Volos NFC 0-3-7 (W-D-L)

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AEK Athens 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Volos NFC 0–1–5 AEK Athens (6 last)

Volos NFC2-2AEK Athens
AEK Athens1-0Volos NFC
Volos NFC2-4AEK Athens
AEK Athens2-0Volos NFC
AEK Athens3-0Volos NFC
Volos NFC2-3AEK Athens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Volos NFC 1441 · AEK Athens 1654

	Volos NFC	Draw	AEK Athens
Our model	10%	20%	70%
Market	10%	20%	70%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEK Athens (rating 1441 vs 1654).
H2H favours AEK Athens: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Volos NFC	AEK Athens
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	2.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/10/70%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.9	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

19.50

X4.75

21.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.82

2 (-1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	9.50 → 9.50	Bet365 9.50
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:19 +3’	9.50	4.75	1.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Volos NFC 0–1–5 AEK Athens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/26 Greece Super League 1	Volos NFC	2-2 HT 1-1	AEK Athens
28/09/25 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	1-0 HT 0-0	Volos NFC
05/01/25 Greece Super League 1	Volos NFC	2-4 HT 0-1	AEK Athens
16/09/24 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	2-0 HT 1-0	Volos NFC
03/01/24 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	3-0 HT 1-0	Volos NFC
03/09/23 Greece Super League 1	Volos NFC	2-3 HT 1-2	AEK Athens

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Panetolikos	3	3	0	0	7	1	9
3	OFI Crete	4	3	0	1	6	2	9
4	AEK Athens	3	2	1	0	10	1	7
5	Olympiacos	4	2	1	1	3	2	7
6	PAOK Salonika	3	2	0	1	7	4	6
7	Aris Salonika	3	2	0	1	5	8	6
8	Iraklis 1908 FC	4	1	2	1	4	6	5
9	Atromitos Athinon	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
10	Volos NFC	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
11	Kalamata	3	0	1	2	3	6	1
12	Kifisias FC	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
13	Asteras Tripolis	3	0	0	3	1	6	0
14	Levadiakos	3	0	0	3	0	8	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Volos NFC	AEK Athens
Olympiacos	1-1 D	1-1 D
Iraklis 1908 FC	1-1 D	4-0 W
Aris Salonika	1-2 L	5-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AEK Athens (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Volos NFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/09	Kalamata Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-1	0	7	D
29/08	Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-1	2	7	D
23/08	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
17/05	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	1-2	1-3	3	5	L
13/05	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-2	4	2	L
10/05	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
03/05	Levadiakos Greece Super League 1	0-2	2-5	4	4	L
18/04	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	2-1	2-3	5	10	L
05/04	OFI Crete Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	3	5	D

AEK Athens

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
30/08	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
17/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
13/05	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
03/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
19/04	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
05/04	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/03	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	3-0	3-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AEK Athens win (70%). Probabilities: Volos NFC 10%, draw 20%, AEK Athens 70%.

How many goals are expected in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Volos NFC 0.68 · AEK Athens 2.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs AEK Athens?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.