Football · Greece Super League 1 · 12/09, 17:00
Prediction: Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos
Team pages: Panathinaikos · Panetolikos
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.7Total
Panathinaikos2.05
Panetolikos0.65
1X2
Panathinaikos
Draw
Panetolikos
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Panathinaikos
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Panetolikos
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Panathinaikos
5–1–0
Panetolikos
(6 last)
- Panathinaikos0-0Panetolikos
- Panetolikos1-2Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos2-0Panetolikos
- Panetolikos1-2Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos2-1Panetolikos
- Panetolikos0-5Panathinaikos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panathinaikos 1538 · Panetolikos 1455
| Panathinaikos | Draw | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 69% | 21% | 10% |
| Market | 70% | 20% | 10% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panathinaikos (rating 1538 vs 1455).
- H2H favours Panathinaikos: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Panathinaikos | Panetolikos | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1.3 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.5 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.8 | 1.7 / 3.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0.2 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Panathinaikos 5–1–0 Panetolikos
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/26 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Panetolikos |
| 28/09/25 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Panathinaikos |
| 01/03/25 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Panetolikos |
| 24/11/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Panathinaikos |
| 07/01/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Panetolikos |
| 16/09/23 Greece Super League 1 | Panetolikos | 0-5 HT 0-2 | Panathinaikos |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Olympiacos | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | PAOK Salonika | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 4 | Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Aris Salonika | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 6 |
| 6 | Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | OFI Crete | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Volos NFC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 9 | Kifisias FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| 11 | Atromitos Athinon | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 12 | Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 | Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 | Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panathinaikos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 19/04 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 05/04 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/03 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 15/03 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 08/03 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
Panetolikos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 8 | W |
| 23/08 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/05 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 26/04 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/04 | Asteras Tripolis Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 18/04 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Panathinaikos win (70%). Probabilities: Panathinaikos 70%, draw 20%, Panetolikos 10%.
How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
The model expects 2.7 goals (Panathinaikos 2.05 · Panetolikos 0.65), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Panetolikos?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.