Football · Greece Super League 1 · 12/09, 17:00

Prediction: Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens

Team pages: Asteras Tripolis · AEK Athens

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.3Total

Asteras Tripolis0.55

AEK Athens1.75

1X2

11% 23% 66%

Asteras Tripolis Draw AEK Athens

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Not both to score 54%

Most likely score

0-1 17%

Recent form · 10 last

Asteras Tripolis 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWDWDWLL

AEK Athens 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Asteras Tripolis 0–6 AEK Athens (6 last)

Asteras Tripolis0-1AEK Athens
AEK Athens1-0Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis0-3AEK Athens
AEK Athens3-0Asteras Tripolis
AEK Athens4-2Asteras Tripolis
Asteras Tripolis0-3AEK Athens

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Asteras Tripolis 1482 · AEK Athens 1643

	Asteras Tripolis	Draw	AEK Athens
Our model	10%	24%	66%
Market	12%	21%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 2.3 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AEK Athens (rating 1482 vs 1643).
H2H favours AEK Athens: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Asteras Tripolis	AEK Athens
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.1	2.1 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5.5	2.2 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.4	4.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

18.00

X4.33

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.90

2 (-1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +3’	8.00	4.33	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Asteras Tripolis 0–0–6 AEK Athens

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 Greece Super League 1	Asteras Tripolis	0-1 HT 0-1	AEK Athens
31/08/25 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	1-0 HT 1-0	Asteras Tripolis
23/02/25 Greece Super League 1	Asteras Tripolis	0-3 HT 0-0	AEK Athens
09/11/24 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	3-0 HT 2-0	Asteras Tripolis
04/02/24 Greece Super League 1	AEK Athens	4-2 HT 3-1	Asteras Tripolis
22/10/23 Greece Super League 1	Asteras Tripolis	0-3 HT 0-1	AEK Athens

Standings · Greece Super League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AEK Athens	3	2	1	0	10	1	7
2	Olympiacos	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	PAOK Salonika	2	2	0	0	6	1	6
4	Panetolikos	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Aris Salonika	3	2	0	1	5	8	6
6	Panathinaikos	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
7	OFI Crete	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
8	Volos NFC	3	0	2	1	2	4	2
9	Kifisias FC	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Iraklis 1908 FC	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
11	Atromitos Athinon	2	0	0	2	1	3	0
12	Kalamata	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
13	Asteras Tripolis	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
14	Levadiakos	2	0	0	2	0	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Asteras Tripolis	AEK Athens
Olympiacos	0-1 L	1-1 D
Kifisias FC	0-0 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: AEK Athens (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Asteras Tripolis

DWLWDWDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
23/08	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-3	3	0	L
21/05	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
16/05	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	11	5	D
12/05	Panserraikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-0	11	10	W
09/05	Larissa Greece Super League 1	1-1	1-1	4	8	D
02/05	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	3-0	4-2	4	4	W
26/04	Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1	1-1	1-2	10	2	L
22/04	Panetolikos Greece Super League 1	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
18/04	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	1	3	D

AEK Athens

WWWDWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Aris Salonika Greece Super League 1	1-0	5-0	2	3	W
30/08	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
22/08	Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1	2-0	4-0	5	1	W
17/05	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
13/05	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
10/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	2-1	8	7	W
03/05	Panathinaikos Greece Super League 1	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
19/04	PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1	1-0	3-0	6	4	W
05/04	Olympiacos Greece Super League 1	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
22/03	Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1	3-0	3-0	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens?

According to our model, the most likely result is an AEK Athens win (66%). Probabilities: Asteras Tripolis 11%, draw 23%, AEK Athens 66%.

How many goals are expected in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens?

The model expects 2.3 goals (Asteras Tripolis 0.55 · AEK Athens 1.75), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK Athens?

The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.