Football · Colombia Primera B · 11/09, 00:00

Prediction: Orsomarso vs Tigres FC

Team pages: Orsomarso · Tigres FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.8Total

Orsomarso1.26

Tigres FC0.54

1X2

54% 29% 16%

Orsomarso Draw Tigres FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 55% Not both to score 56%

Most likely score

1-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Orsomarso 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWDDWL

Tigres FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLDLDWWWL

Head-to-head

Orsomarso 4–1–1 Tigres FC (6 last)

Tigres FC0-1Orsomarso
Tigres FC2-0Orsomarso
Orsomarso1-1Tigres FC
Orsomarso1-0Tigres FC
Tigres FC0-1Orsomarso
Orsomarso4-1Tigres FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orsomarso 1494 · Tigres FC 1460

	Orsomarso	Draw	Tigres FC
Our model	53%	32%	15%
Market	56%	27%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 1.8 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Orsomarso: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orsomarso	Tigres FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.8 / 0.2	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 21.93

Under 21.88

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 1.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
23:19 +1’	1.65	3.40	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orsomarso 4–1–1 Tigres FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/02/26 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Orsomarso
02/08/25 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Orsomarso
22/02/25 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-1 HT 1-0	Tigres FC
12/08/24 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	1-0 HT 1-0	Tigres FC
01/06/24 Colombia Primera B	Tigres FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Orsomarso
28/05/24 Colombia Primera B	Orsomarso	4-1 HT 1-0	Tigres FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Cartagena	7	4	1	2	15	8	13
2	Independiente Yumbo	6	4	1	1	8	2	13
3	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
4	Patriotas FC	6	3	2	1	10	8	11
5	Tigres FC	6	3	1	2	6	3	10
6	Real San Andres	7	2	4	1	11	12	10
7	Deportes Quindio	6	2	3	1	5	3	9
8	Orsomarso	5	2	2	1	4	2	8
9	Atletico Cali FC	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
10	Barranquilla FC	6	2	2	2	8	8	8
11	Itagui Leones	7	2	2	3	5	12	8
12	Bogota FC	7	2	1	4	4	8	7
13	Envigado FC	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
14	Boca Juniors De Cali	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	6	1	2	3	4	9	5
16	Union Magdalena	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orsomarso	Tigres FC
Real Cartagena	0-1 L	3-0 W
Patriotas FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
Union Magdalena	0-0 D	1-0 W
Itagui Leones	0-0 D	0-1 L
Internacional FC de Palmira	1-2 L	2-2 D
Deportes Quindio	2-2 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	0 W 4 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orsomarso

WDLLDWDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	12	9	L
25/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	6	W
20/08	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-1	6	8	D
01/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	4	D
27/07	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
18/04	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	7	5	D
13/04	Bogota FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	5	6	L
31/03	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	1-2	6	12	L
27/03	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-2	2	3	D
21/03	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	4	W

Tigres FC

LLLDLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/09	Patriotas FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	1	6	L
30/08	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	1-0	3-0	0	4	W
24/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
19/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
01/08	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	0	D
25/07	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	6	9	L
19/05	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	1-2	2-2	3	6	D
15/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-2	1	5	L
10/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
05/05	Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orsomarso vs Tigres FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Orsomarso win (54%). Probabilities: Orsomarso 54%, draw 29%, Tigres FC 16%.

How many goals are expected in Orsomarso vs Tigres FC?

The model expects 1.8 goals (Orsomarso 1.26 · Tigres FC 0.54), with a 56% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Orsomarso vs Tigres FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.