Football · Colombia Primera B · 19/09, 01:05
Prediction: Patriotas FC vs Union Magdalena
Team pages: Patriotas FC · Union Magdalena
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.25Total
Patriotas FC1.24
Union Magdalena1.01
1X2
Patriotas FC
Draw
Union Magdalena
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 61%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 15%
Recent form · 10 last
Patriotas FC
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Union Magdalena
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Patriotas FC
3–1–2
Union Magdalena
(6 last)
- Union Magdalena2-1Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC3-1Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena0-1Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC1-1Union Magdalena
- Union Magdalena4-0Patriotas FC
- Patriotas FC1-0Union Magdalena
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Patriotas FC 1517 · Union Magdalena 1468
| Patriotas FC | Draw | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 31% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Patriotas FC (rating 1517 vs 1468).
- H2H favours Patriotas FC: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Patriotas FC | Union Magdalena | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.2 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.2 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/20/20% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.7 / 5.7 | 3 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0.5 | 4.9 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Patriotas FC 3–1–2 Union Magdalena
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/03/26 Colombia Primera B | Union Magdalena | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Patriotas FC |
| 04/10/22 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Union Magdalena |
| 10/04/22 Colombia Primera A | Union Magdalena | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 03/10/19 Colombia Primera A | Patriotas FC | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Union Magdalena |
| 06/04/19 Colombia Primera A | Union Magdalena | 4-0 HT 1-0 | Patriotas FC |
| 03/08/17 Colombia Cup | Patriotas FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Union Magdalena |
Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Patriotas FC | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 17 |
| 2 | Independiente Yumbo | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 14 |
| 4 | Real Cartagena | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
| 5 | Tigres FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Atletico Cali FC | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 7 | Deportes Quindio | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Real San Andres | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 10 |
| 9 | Itagui Leones | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 9 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Boca Juniors De Cali | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| 12 | Barranquilla FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Internacional FC de Palmira | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 8 |
| 14 | Bogota FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 7 |
| 15 | Envigado FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 4 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Patriotas FC | Union Magdalena |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Quindio | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Barranquilla FC | 3-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Tigres FC | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Real Soacha Cundinamarca | 1-4 L | 1-2 L |
| Orsomarso | 1-1 D | 0-0 D |
| Envigado FC | 0-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Real Cartagena | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 4 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Patriotas FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 9 | W |
| 11/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
2-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 07/09 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 29/08 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 25/08 | Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 20/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 8 | D |
| 31/07 | Real San Andres Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 3-1 | 10 | 6 | W |
| 18/04 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 14/04 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 7 | W |
Union Magdalena
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 06/09 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 01/09 | Envigado FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 29/08 | Deportes Quindio Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 24/08 | Tigres FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Orsomarso Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 25/07 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Bogota FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 8 | D |
| 12/05 | Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Patriotas FC vs Union Magdalena?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Patriotas FC win (40%). Probabilities: Patriotas FC 40%, draw 30%, Union Magdalena 29%.
How many goals are expected in Patriotas FC vs Union Magdalena?
The model expects 2.25 goals (Patriotas FC 1.24 · Union Magdalena 1.01), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Patriotas FC vs Union Magdalena?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.