Football · Colombia Primera B · 14/09, 01:00

Prediction: Deportes Quindio vs Patriotas FC

Team pages: Deportes Quindio · Patriotas FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.94Total

Deportes Quindio1.19

Patriotas FC0.75

1X2

46% 31% 23%

Deportes Quindio Draw Patriotas FC

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

1-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Deportes Quindio 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WLLLDDWWDD

Patriotas FC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDWLWW

Head-to-head

Deportes Quindio 2–1–3 Patriotas FC (6 last)

Patriotas FC0-0Deportes Quindio
Patriotas FC2-0Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio0-1Patriotas FC
Patriotas FC1-2Deportes Quindio
Deportes Quindio1-0Patriotas FC
Deportes Quindio0-3Patriotas FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportes Quindio 1515 · Patriotas FC 1511

	Deportes Quindio	Draw	Patriotas FC
Our model	45%	33%	22%
Market	47%	29%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 1.94 goals · Bet365 line 2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Patriotas FC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportes Quindio	Patriotas FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 0.5	1.5 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/90/0%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.8	4 / 6.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	4.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.10

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 1.85

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 23:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.95▼	Pinn 2.12 ★
X	2.90 → 3.10▲	Bet365 3.10
2	3.50 → 3.80▲	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
20:18 +3’	2.15	2.90	3.50
22:55 +1’	1.83▼	3.20▲	4.33▲
23:43 +6’	1.95▲	3.10▼	3.80▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:45 +11’	1.92	3.18	4.12
23:43 +6’	2.12▲	3.02▼	3.62▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportes Quindio 2–1–3 Patriotas FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/03/26 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Quindio
18/08/25 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	2-0 HT 1-0	Deportes Quindio
09/03/25 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	0-1 HT 0-0	Patriotas FC
30/08/23 Colombia Primera B	Patriotas FC	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportes Quindio
14/03/23 Colombia Primera B	Deportes Quindio	1-0 HT 0-0	Patriotas FC
14/11/21 Colombia Primera A	Deportes Quindio	0-3 HT 0-2	Patriotas FC

Standings · Colombia Primera B · Clausura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Independiente Yumbo	7	4	2	1	8	2	14
2	Patriotas FC	7	4	2	1	13	9	14
3	Real Cartagena	7	4	1	2	15	8	13
4	Tigres FC	7	4	1	2	8	3	13
5	Real Soacha Cundinamarca	7	3	2	2	11	7	11
6	Atletico Cali FC	7	3	2	2	10	9	11
7	Deportes Quindio	7	2	4	1	5	3	10
8	Real San Andres	7	2	4	1	11	12	10
9	Orsomarso	6	2	2	2	4	4	8
10	Barranquilla FC	7	2	2	3	9	11	8
11	Itagui Leones	7	2	2	3	5	12	8
12	Bogota FC	7	2	1	4	4	8	7
13	Envigado FC	6	1	2	3	5	7	5
14	Boca Juniors De Cali	6	1	2	3	6	9	5
15	Internacional FC de Palmira	7	1	2	4	4	10	5
16	Union Magdalena	6	1	1	4	2	6	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportes Quindio	Patriotas FC
Real San Andres	0-0 D	2-2 D
Envigado FC	1-0 W	0-2 L
Internacional FC de Palmira	1-1 D	3-1 W
Itagui Leones	1-1 D	1-0 W
Tigres FC	1-0 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Patriotas FC (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Deportes Quindio

WLLLDDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	Independiente Yumbo Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
06/09	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
29/08	Union Magdalena Colombia Primera B	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
24/08	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	1	2	W
08/08	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-1	6	8	D
04/08	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/07	Boca Juniors De Cali Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
18/05	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
15/05	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
10/05	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	7	W

Patriotas FC

WWLWDDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/09	Barranquilla FC Colombia Primera B	2-0	3-1	8	3	W
07/09	Tigres FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
29/08	Real Soacha Cundinamarca Colombia Primera B	1-1	1-4	1	5	L
25/08	Atletico Cali FC Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-0	7	5	W
20/08	Orsomarso Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-1	2	8	D
31/07	Real San Andres Colombia Primera B	1-0	2-2	3	4	D
26/07	Internacional FC de Palmira Colombia Primera B	0-1	3-1	10	6	W
18/04	Envigado FC Colombia Primera B	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
14/04	Real Cartagena Colombia Primera B	0-0	1-0	11	7	W
01/04	Itagui Leones Colombia Primera B	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportes Quindio vs Patriotas FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Deportes Quindio win (46%). Probabilities: Deportes Quindio 46%, draw 31%, Patriotas FC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Deportes Quindio vs Patriotas FC?

The model expects 1.94 goals (Deportes Quindio 1.19 · Patriotas FC 0.75), with a 53% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportes Quindio vs Patriotas FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.