Football · Israel Liga Alef South · 09/09, 19:00
Prediction: MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Team pages: MS Jerusalem · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
MS Jerusalem2.36
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod1.34
1X2
MS Jerusalem
Draw
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
2-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
MS Jerusalem
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
MS Jerusalem
1–1–2
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
(4 last)
- MS Jerusalem3-3Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
- Maccabi Ironi Ashdod3-1MS Jerusalem
- MS Jerusalem0-4Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
- Maccabi Ironi Ashdod0-1MS Jerusalem
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · MS Jerusalem 1541 · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1460
| MS Jerusalem | Draw | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 59% | 21% | 20% |
| Market | 58% | 23% | 19% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MS Jerusalem (rating 1541 vs 1460).
- H2H favours Maccabi Ironi Ashdod: 2-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| MS Jerusalem | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.5 / 1.5 | 1.2 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/30/10% | 22/44/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.3 / 5.7 | 0.8 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.9 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · MS Jerusalem 1–1–2 Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 3-3 HT 1-1 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod |
| 10/10/25 Israel Liga Alef South | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 3-1 HT 1-1 | MS Jerusalem |
| 31/01/25 Israel Liga Alef South | MS Jerusalem | 0-4 HT 0-0 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod |
| 27/09/24 Israel Liga Alef South | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 0-1 HT 0-0 | MS Jerusalem |
Standings · Israel Liga Alef South · Liga Alef 26/27, South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maccabi Ironi Sderot | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Maccabi Yavne | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Sport Club Dimona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Shimshon Tel Aviv | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | MS Jerusalem | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Hapoel Herzliya | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Hapoel Marmorek | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Hapoel Mahane Yehuda | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 8 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hapoel Holon Yaniv | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 12 | Kfar Saba 1928 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Hapoel Hadera | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | AS Nordia Jerusalem | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Ironi Beit Shemesh | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Tzeirey Tira | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Hapoel Azor | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | MS Jerusalem | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod |
|---|---|---|
| Kfar Saba 1928 | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Sport Club Dimona | 4-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hapoel Herzliya | 5-1 W | 1-2 L |
| Hapoel Marmorek | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: MS Jerusalem (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
MS Jerusalem
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/09 | Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South |
2-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 4 | W |
| 27/02 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 20/02 | AS Nordia Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 13/02 | Maccabi Ironi Ashdod Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 06/02 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
2-1 | 5-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 30/01 | Maccabi Kiryat Malakhi Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 23/01 | FC Beitar Yavne Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 16/01 | Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 6 | L |
| 09/01 | Hapoel Azor Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 06/01 | Hapoel Holon Yaniv Israel Liga Alef South |
3-2 | 3-3 | 3 | 4 | D |
Maccabi Ironi Ashdod
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Hapoel Herzliya Israel Liga Alef South |
1-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 27/02 | Hapoel Marmorek Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 13/02 | MS Jerusalem Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/02 | Tzeirey Tira Israel Liga Alef South |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/01 | Hapoel Nir Ramat Hasharon Israel Liga Alef South |
3-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/01 | Kfar Saba 1928 Israel Liga Alef South |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 16/01 | Maccabi Yavne Israel Liga Alef South |
0-2 | 0-5 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 09/01 | Shimshon Tel Aviv Israel Liga Alef South |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 06/01 | Maccabi Kiryat Gat Israel Liga Alef South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 31/12 | Sport Club Dimona Israel Liga Alef South |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Ironi Ashdod?
According to our model, the most likely result is a MS Jerusalem win (59%). Probabilities: MS Jerusalem 59%, draw 22%, Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 19%.
How many goals are expected in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Ironi Ashdod?
The model expects 3.7 goals (MS Jerusalem 2.36 · Maccabi Ironi Ashdod 1.34), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in MS Jerusalem vs Maccabi Ironi Ashdod?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.