Football · Finland Ykkonen · 11/09, 17:30

Prediction: FC Jazz vs KPV

Team pages: FC Jazz · KPV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.56Total

FC Jazz2.51

KPV1.05

1X2

69% 18% 14%

FC Jazz Draw KPV

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Jazz 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLWWDDDWDW

KPV 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLDLWLLWLL

Head-to-head

FC Jazz 1–2–3 KPV (6 last)

FC Jazz0-1KPV
KPV0-2FC Jazz
FC Jazz1-1KPV
KPV3-1FC Jazz
KPV2-0FC Jazz
FC Jazz3-3KPV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Jazz 1549 · KPV 1442

	FC Jazz	Draw	KPV
Our model	68%	18%	13%
Market	69%	17%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.56 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Jazz (rating 1549 vs 1442).
H2H favours KPV: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Jazz	KPV
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1	1.4 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.6	2.3 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.25

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)2.00

2 (+1.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
20:44 +34’	1.30	5.25	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Jazz 1–2–3 KPV

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
02/07/26 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	0-1 HT 0-0	KPV
20/04/26 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	0-2 HT 0-1	FC Jazz
23/08/25 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	1-1 HT 0-1	KPV
14/06/25 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	3-1 HT 1-0	FC Jazz
28/09/24 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	2-0 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
24/08/24 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	3-3 HT 1-1	KPV

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Relegation Round

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VJS Vantaa	22	7	10	5	38	31	31
2	FC Jazz	22	9	6	7	32	29	30
3	TPV	22	6	6	10	30	40	24
4	FC Inter II	22	5	5	12	32	51	20
5	KUPS Akatemia	22	3	6	13	37	51	15
6	KPV	22	4	3	15	24	68	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Jazz	KPV
FC Inter II	2-0 W	3-2 W
VJS Vantaa	1-1 D	1-2 L
SalPa	2-0 W	3-0 W
OLS	1-1 D	1-2 L
RoPS	2-2 D	1-1 D
KUPS Akatemia	2-2 D	2-4 L
TPV	4-0 W	1-3 L
JJK	3-1 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 4 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: FC Jazz (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Jazz

LLWWDDDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
23/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
09/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
30/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
24/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
18/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W
11/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	1	7	L
02/07	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	9	2	L

KPV

WLDLWLLWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-4	1-4	1	4	L
21/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-4	4	6	L
16/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
09/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
05/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-6	8	2	L
01/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
26/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	7	1	D
11/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	1-3	5	3	L
02/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Jazz vs KPV?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Jazz win (69%). Probabilities: FC Jazz 69%, draw 18%, KPV 14%.

How many goals are expected in FC Jazz vs KPV?

The model expects 3.56 goals (FC Jazz 2.51 · KPV 1.05), with a 52% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Jazz vs KPV?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.