Football · Finland Ykkonen · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: SalPa vs Tampere Utd

Team pages: SalPa · Tampere Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

SalPa1.63

Tampere Utd1.54

1X2

39% 25% 35%

SalPa Draw Tampere Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Tampere Utd 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

SalPa 5–1 Tampere Utd (6 last)

Tampere Utd0-1SalPa
SalPa2-0Tampere Utd
SalPa3-0Tampere Utd
SalPa3-0Tampere Utd
Tampere Utd4-1SalPa
Tampere Utd0-2SalPa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 1539 · Tampere Utd 1520

	SalPa	Draw	Tampere Utd
Our model	39%	26%	35%
Market	40%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SalPa: 5-0-1.
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa	Tampere Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.5	2.7 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.48 ★
X	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.62
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:56 +2’	2.25	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:47 +72’	2.48	3.62	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 5–0–1 Tampere Utd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/07/26 Finland Ykkonen	Tampere Utd	0-1 HT 0-0	SalPa
11/04/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	2-0 HT 0-0	Tampere Utd
01/04/23 Europe Friendlies	SalPa	3-0 HT 3-0	Tampere Utd
23/07/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	SalPa	3-0 HT 1-0	Tampere Utd
30/04/22 Finland Kakkonen Group B	Tampere Utd	4-1 HT 3-1	SalPa
17/08/19 Finland Kakkonen Group B	Tampere Utd	0-2 HT 0-0	SalPa

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	23	14	5	4	50	20	47
2	RoPS	23	11	8	4	48	33	41
3	SalPa	23	11	6	6	45	38	39
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	23	9	8	6	42	33	35
5	OLS	23	9	8	6	44	36	35
6	JJK	23	8	7	8	54	46	31

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa	Tampere Utd
JJK	4-3 W	0-0 D
OLS	4-1 W	1-2 L
TPV	1-1 D	1-1 D
KPV	0-3 L	6-0 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-1 L	3-2 W
FC Inter II	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: SalPa (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	JJK Finland Ykkonen	4-1	4-3	8	5	W
29/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
22/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
15/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
11/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W

Tampere Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-2	10	5	W
29/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-2	1-2	3	3	L
22/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	3-0	4-0	11	4	W
15/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	8	3	D
11/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
05/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	3-0	6-0	6	2	W
31/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	2-0	4-4	0	5	D
24/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
18/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
10/07	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	5	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa vs Tampere Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa win (39%). Probabilities: SalPa 39%, draw 25%, Tampere Utd 35%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa vs Tampere Utd?

The model expects 3.17 goals (SalPa 1.63 · Tampere Utd 1.54), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa vs Tampere Utd?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.