Football · Uruguay Clausura · 12/09, 21:30
Prediction: Montevideo Wanderers vs Nacional De Football
Team pages: Montevideo Wanderers · Nacional De Football
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.28Total
Montevideo Wanderers0.88
Nacional De Football1.39
1X2
Montevideo Wanderers
Draw
Nacional De Football
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Montevideo Wanderers
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Nacional De Football
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Montevideo Wanderers
1–1–4
Nacional De Football
(6 last)
- Nacional De Football1-2Montevideo Wanderers
- Nacional De Football2-0Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers0-0Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football3-1Montevideo Wanderers
- Montevideo Wanderers0-2Nacional De Football
- Nacional De Football3-0Montevideo Wanderers
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Montevideo Wanderers 1490 · Nacional De Football 1532
| Montevideo Wanderers | Draw | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 23% | 30% | 48% |
| Market | 24% | 27% | 49% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional De Football (rating 1490 vs 1532).
- H2H favours Nacional De Football: 4-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 12.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Montevideo Wanderers | Nacional De Football | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.9 | 0.9 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 22/33/44% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.7 | 2.1 / 5.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 6 / 0.7 | 6.2 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Montevideo Wanderers 1–1–4 Nacional De Football
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio | Nacional De Football | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 14/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 26/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nacional De Football |
| 27/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 16/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Montevideo Wanderers | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Nacional De Football |
| 03/03/24 Uruguay Apertura | Nacional De Football | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Montevideo Wanderers |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Montevideo Wanderers | Nacional De Football |
|---|---|---|
| Cerro Largo | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Defensor Sporting | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Boston River | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Penarol | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 1 L | 2 W 1 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Montevideo Wanderers
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 23/08 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 09/08 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 08/11 | CA River Plate Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 10 | L |
| 01/11 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 26/10 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 19/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 12/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
Nacional De Football
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/08 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Racing Club de Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 4 | L |
| 09/11 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 7 | D |
| 01/11 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
| 26/10 | Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 18/10 | Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura |
3-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 12/10 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 04/10 | Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Montevideo Wanderers vs Nacional De Football?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional De Football win (48%). Probabilities: Montevideo Wanderers 23%, draw 29%, Nacional De Football 48%.
How many goals are expected in Montevideo Wanderers vs Nacional De Football?
The model expects 2.28 goals (Montevideo Wanderers 0.88 · Nacional De Football 1.39), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Nacional De Football?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.