Football · Uruguay Clausura · 12/09, 18:00

Prediction: Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River

Team pages: Racing Club de Montevideo · Boston River

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.68Total

Racing Club de Montevideo0.95

Boston River0.73

1X2

40% 33% 27%

Racing Club de Montevideo Draw Boston River

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 51% Not both to score 55%

Most likely score

0-0 20%

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Club de Montevideo 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDLWDWDW

Boston River 3-7-0 (W-D-L)

DDDWDDWDWD

Head-to-head

Racing Club de Montevideo 3–2–1 Boston River (6 last)

Racing Club de Montevideo1-0Boston River
Boston River0-1Racing Club de Montevideo
Boston River1-0Racing Club de Montevideo
Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Boston River
Racing Club de Montevideo0-0Boston River
Racing Club de Montevideo2-0Boston River

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Club de Montevideo 1524 · Boston River 1509

	Racing Club de Montevideo	Draw	Boston River
Our model	38%	37%	25%
Market	41%	30%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 1.68 goals · Bet365 line 2 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Racing Club de Montevideo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Club de Montevideo	Boston River
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/70/0%	30/60/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.4	2 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.93

2 (+0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 21.90

Under 21.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:10 +1’	2.15	3.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Racing Club de Montevideo 3–2–1 Boston River

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/08/26 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Racing Club de Montevideo	1-0 HT 1-0	Boston River
14/03/26 Uruguay Apertura	Boston River	0-1 HT 0-0	Racing Club de Montevideo
05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Boston River	1-0 HT 0-0	Racing Club de Montevideo
13/09/25 Uruguay Clausura	Racing Club de Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	Boston River
10/09/25 Uruguay Cup	Racing Club de Montevideo	0-0 HT 0-0	Boston River
23/05/25 Uruguay Torneo Intermedio	Racing Club de Montevideo	2-0 HT 1-0	Boston River

Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group A

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Penarol	7	5	1	1	12	3	16
2	Cerro Largo	7	3	2	2	7	5	11
3	Racing Club de Montevideo	7	2	4	1	4	3	10
4	Liverpool Montevideo	7	2	3	2	5	5	9
5	Central Espanol	7	2	3	2	4	4	9
6	Cerro	7	3	0	4	6	10	9
7	Defensor Sporting	7	1	3	3	6	9	6
8	Boston River	7	1	2	4	5	10	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Racing Club de Montevideo	Boston River
Albion FC	1-0 W	3-2 W
Danubio	0-0 D	0-0 D
Nacional De Football	2-0 W	2-1 W
Miramar Misiones	2-0 W	4-0 W
Cerro Largo	2-2 D	2-2 D
Juventud De Las Piedras	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	3 W 3 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Racing Club de Montevideo

LDDDLWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	0-0	1-0	6	5	W
23/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
15/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
11/08	Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura	2-2	2-2	5	4	D
07/11	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-0	4	9	W
02/11	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
25/10	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-2	5	8	D
20/10	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
11/10	Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-2	3	7	D
05/10	Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-1	6	7	L

Boston River

DDDWDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	1-1	1-1	6	4	D
21/08	Albion FC Uruguay Clausura	2-1	3-2	5	7	W
15/08	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D
09/08	Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura	0-0	2-1	2	4	W
09/11	Cerro Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
01/11	Montevideo Wanderers Uruguay Clausura	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
27/10	Miramar Misiones Uruguay Clausura	4-0	4-0	3	4	W
18/10	Danubio Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
11/10	Cerro Largo Uruguay Clausura	0-2	2-2	5	3	D
04/10	Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura	0-0	0-0	5	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Racing Club de Montevideo win (40%). Probabilities: Racing Club de Montevideo 40%, draw 33%, Boston River 27%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?

The model expects 1.68 goals (Racing Club de Montevideo 0.95 · Boston River 0.73), with a 58% chance of under 2 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Club de Montevideo vs Boston River?

The model gives a 55% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.