Prediction: Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro
Team pages: Club Atletico Progreso · Cerro
- Cerro0-1Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso2-0Cerro
- Cerro0-0Club Atletico Progreso
- Club Atletico Progreso0-1Cerro
- Cerro2-3Club Atletico Progreso
- Cerro1-1Club Atletico Progreso
| Club Atletico Progreso | Draw | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 33% | 33% |
| Market | 34% | 31% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro (rating 1425 vs 1530).
- H2H favours Club Atletico Progreso: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 10.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Club Atletico Progreso | Cerro | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.9 / 3.2 | 1.2 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.1 | 5.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Atletico Progreso 3–2–1 Cerro
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 05/10/25 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Cerro |
| 06/04/25 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 14/09/24 Uruguay Clausura | Club Atletico Progreso | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Cerro |
| 01/03/24 Uruguay Apertura | Cerro | 2-3 HT 2-1 | Club Atletico Progreso |
| 10/09/22 Uruguay Segunda | Cerro | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Club Atletico Progreso |
Standings · Uruguay Clausura · Primera Division 2026, Torneo Intermedio, Group B
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montevideo Wanderers | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Nacional De Football | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Deportivo Maldonado | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 12 |
| 4 | Torque | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 12 |
| 5 | Juventud De Las Piedras | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 8 |
| 6 | Albion FC | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
| 7 | Club Atletico Progreso | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 |
| 8 | Danubio | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Club Atletico Progreso | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Nacional De Football | 0-1 L | 0-0 D |
| Torque | 0-5 L | 2-1 W |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 1-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Defensor Sporting | 2-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Club Atletico Progreso
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 16/08 | Deportivo Maldonado Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Central Espanol Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/11 | Juventud De Las Piedras Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
0-3 | 0-5 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 26/10 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 19/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 11/10 | Plaza Colonia Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/10 | Cerro Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 8 | W |
Cerro
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Liverpool Montevideo Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 15/08 | Albion FC Uruguay Clausura |
1-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 09/08 | Danubio Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 1-0 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 09/11 | Boston River Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 6 | D |
| 01/11 | Nacional De Football Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 25/10 | Penarol Uruguay Clausura |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 9 | W |
| 18/10 | Torque Uruguay Clausura |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 12/10 | Defensor Sporting Uruguay Clausura |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/10 | Club Atletico Progreso Uruguay Clausura |
0-2 | 0-2 | 2 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Atletico Progreso win (34%). Probabilities: Club Atletico Progreso 34%, draw 32%, Cerro 34%.
How many goals are expected in Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro?
The model expects 2.05 goals (Club Atletico Progreso 1.02 · Cerro 1.02), with a 51% chance of under 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Club Atletico Progreso vs Cerro?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.