Football · Finland Ykkonen · 12/09, 15:00

Prediction: SalPa vs JJK

Team pages: SalPa · JJK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

SalPa2.08

JJK1.73

1X2

46% 23% 32%

SalPa Draw JJK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

SalPa 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWDLWW

JJK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDLLLDDDW

Head-to-head

SalPa 3–2–0 JJK (5 last)

SalPa2-1JJK
JJK2-2SalPa
SalPa2-2JJK
JJK0-1SalPa
SalPa3-0JJK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SalPa 1523 · JJK 1481

	SalPa	Draw	JJK
Our model	46%	23%	32%
Market	46%	23%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SalPa (rating 1523 vs 1481).
H2H favours SalPa: 3-2-0.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SalPa	JJK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	2.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 6.3	2.6 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	4.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.90

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
21:01 +53’	1.95	3.90	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · SalPa 3–2–0 JJK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/08/26 Finland Ykkonen	SalPa	2-1 HT 0-1	JJK
16/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	JJK	2-2 HT 1-1	SalPa
16/09/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	2-2 HT 1-1	JJK
15/07/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	JJK	0-1 HT 0-0	SalPa
06/05/23 Finland Ykkosliiga	SalPa	3-0 HT 1-0	JJK

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Tampere Utd	22	13	5	4	47	18	44
2	RoPS	22	11	7	4	47	32	40
3	SalPa	22	10	6	6	41	35	36
4	PK Keski-Uusimaa	22	9	8	5	40	30	35
5	OLS	22	9	7	6	43	35	34
6	JJK	22	8	7	7	51	42	31

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SalPa	JJK
KUPS Akatemia	3-1 W	4-4 D
FC Jazz	0-2 L	1-3 L
TPV	1-1 D	0-1 L
KPV	0-3 L	4-1 W
PK Keski-Uusimaa	0-1 L	2-2 D
FC Inter II	2-1 W	11-1 W
Tampere Utd	1-0 W	0-0 D
VJS Vantaa	2-2 D	4-4 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 4 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SalPa

DWWLLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-0	3-1	4	2	W
22/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	4-1	5	3	W
15/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	10	3	L
11/08	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
01/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	13	2	L
25/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-1	6	8	L
18/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/07	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
04/07	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	6	5	D

JJK

WLDLLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	4-0	4-1	5	4	W
21/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-2	8	3	D
16/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-4	2	4	D
11/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	7	7	D
05/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-2	7	2	L
25/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-4	7	4	L
18/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-3	8	3	L
11/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-2	4-4	11	7	D
05/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
25/06	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	6-0	11-1	10	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SalPa vs JJK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SalPa win (46%). Probabilities: SalPa 46%, draw 23%, JJK 32%.

How many goals are expected in SalPa vs JJK?

The model expects 3.81 goals (SalPa 2.08 · JJK 1.73), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SalPa vs JJK?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.