Football · Finland Ykkonen · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: TPV vs FC Jazz

Team pages: TPV · FC Jazz

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

TPV1.53

FC Jazz1.68

1X2

35% 24% 41%

TPV Draw FC Jazz

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

TPV 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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FC Jazz 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

TPV 1–1–4 FC Jazz (6 last)

FC Jazz4-0TPV
TPV0-2FC Jazz
FC Jazz2-1TPV
TPV0-0FC Jazz
FC Jazz6-0TPV
FC Jazz2-3TPV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · TPV 1482 · FC Jazz 1555

	TPV	Draw	FC Jazz
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	35%	23%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Jazz (rating 1482 vs 1555).
H2H favours FC Jazz: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	TPV	FC Jazz
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	60/0/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.1	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Pinn 2.82 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.22

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12% Pinnacle margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:11 +6’	2.55	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +2’	2.77	3.58	2.19
12:23 +54’	2.82▲	3.67▲	2.22▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · TPV 1–1–4 FC Jazz

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Finland Ykkonen	FC Jazz	4-0 HT 1-0	TPV
02/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	TPV	0-2 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
20/08/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	FC Jazz	2-1 HT 1-0	TPV
03/06/21 Finland Kakkonen Group B	TPV	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Jazz
31/10/20 Finland Kakkonen Group B	FC Jazz	6-0 HT 2-0	TPV
28/08/20 Finland Kakkonen Group B	FC Jazz	2-3 HT 1-1	TPV

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VJS Vantaa	24	9	10	5	42	32	37
2	FC Jazz	24	10	6	8	35	31	33
3	TPV	24	7	6	11	34	45	27
4	FC Inter II	24	6	5	13	36	53	23
5	KPV	24	5	3	16	27	73	18
6	KUPS Akatemia	24	3	6	15	41	58	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	TPV	FC Jazz
FC Inter II	0-3 L	2-0 W
KUPS Akatemia	4-2 W	2-2 D
SalPa	1-1 D	2-0 W
OLS	2-4 L	1-1 D
RoPS	6-3 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: FC Jazz (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

TPV

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	4	2	L
13/09	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	4-2	9	3	W
29/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	3	7	L
22/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
15/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	3	3	D
11/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
05/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-4	5	4	L
01/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	6-3	0	1	W
24/07	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
18/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-1	8	4	W

FC Jazz

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-2	5	3	L
11/09	KPV Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
29/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	5	8	W
23/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
15/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
09/08	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-1	5	3	D
05/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	2-1	2-2	1	6	D
30/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-2	2-2	11	3	D
24/07	TPV Finland Ykkonen	1-0	4-0	5	3	W
18/07	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-1	7	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in TPV vs FC Jazz?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Jazz win (41%). Probabilities: TPV 35%, draw 24%, FC Jazz 41%.

How many goals are expected in TPV vs FC Jazz?

The model expects 3.22 goals (TPV 1.53 · FC Jazz 1.68), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in TPV vs FC Jazz?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.