Football · Finland Ykkonen · 26/09, 16:00

Prediction: VJS Vantaa vs KPV

Team pages: VJS Vantaa · KPV

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.05Total

VJS Vantaa2.76

KPV1.3

1X2

67% 18% 15%

VJS Vantaa Draw KPV

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

VJS Vantaa 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDWDDLWW

KPV 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

VJS Vantaa 2–1 KPV (3 last)

KPV1-2VJS Vantaa
VJS Vantaa5-0KPV
VJS Vantaa0-3KPV

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VJS Vantaa 1548 · KPV 1449

	VJS Vantaa	Draw	KPV
Our model	67%	18%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.05 goals · Bet365 line 4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours VJS Vantaa (rating 1548 vs 1449).
H2H favours VJS Vantaa: 2-0-1.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VJS Vantaa	KPV
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	1.5 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.7	2.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.90

2 (+1.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 41.95

Under 41.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 6.55 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 8.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:34 +4’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
12:57 +1’	1.36	6.48	5.30
14:04 +12’	1.32▼	6.55▲	5.64▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · VJS Vantaa 2–0–1 KPV

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Finland Ykkonen	KPV	1-2 HT 1-1	VJS Vantaa
23/05/26 Finland Ykkonen	VJS Vantaa	5-0 HT 4-0	KPV
15/03/19 Finland Cup	VJS Vantaa	0-3 HT 0-1	KPV

Standings · Finland Ykkonen · Ykkonen 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	VJS Vantaa	24	9	10	5	42	32	37
2	FC Jazz	24	10	6	8	35	31	33
3	TPV	24	7	6	11	34	45	27
4	FC Inter II	24	6	5	13	36	53	23
5	KPV	24	5	3	16	27	73	18
6	KUPS Akatemia	24	3	6	15	41	58	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VJS Vantaa	KPV
FC Jazz	2-0 W	0-3 L
FC Inter II	2-1 W	3-2 W
RoPS	0-2 L	1-1 D
JJK	4-4 D	1-4 L
KUPS Akatemia	2-2 D	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VJS Vantaa

WDDDWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
12/09	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	0-0	2-1	11	6	W
29/08	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	0-2	11	5	L
23/08	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
16/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	1-1	4-4	5	4	D
09/08	KPV Finland Ykkonen	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
05/08	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
31/07	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-1	9	9	D
26/07	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	0-1	2-2	6	5	D
22/07	PK Keski-Uusimaa Finland Ykkonen	0-1	3-1	7	4	W

KPV

DLWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	1-1	3-2	3	6	W
11/09	FC Jazz Finland Ykkonen	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
29/08	JJK Finland Ykkonen	0-4	1-4	1	4	L
21/08	KUPS Akatemia Finland Ykkonen	2-0	2-4	4	6	L
16/08	FC Inter II Finland Ykkonen	1-0	3-2	10	3	W
09/08	VJS Vantaa Finland Ykkonen	1-1	1-2	9	5	L
05/08	Tampere Utd Finland Ykkonen	0-3	0-6	8	2	L
01/08	SalPa Finland Ykkonen	2-0	3-0	4	2	W
26/07	OLS Finland Ykkonen	0-1	1-2	5	6	L
20/07	RoPS Finland Ykkonen	1-0	1-1	7	1	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VJS Vantaa vs KPV?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VJS Vantaa win (67%). Probabilities: VJS Vantaa 67%, draw 18%, KPV 15%.

How many goals are expected in VJS Vantaa vs KPV?

The model expects 4.05 goals (VJS Vantaa 2.76 · KPV 1.3), with a 52% chance of under 4 goals.

Will both teams score in VJS Vantaa vs KPV?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.