Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 09/10, 17:00

Prediction: SJK vs FC Lahti

Team pages: SJK · FC Lahti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

SJK1.32

FC Lahti1.32

1X2

36% 27% 36%

SJK Draw FC Lahti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

SJK 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLDDDW

FC Lahti 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWWLD

Head-to-head

SJK 2–3–1 FC Lahti (6 last)

SJK1-2FC Lahti
FC Lahti2-3SJK
SJK5-5FC Lahti
FC Lahti0-4SJK
FC Lahti1-1SJK
SJK0-0FC Lahti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SJK 1488 · FC Lahti 1514

	SJK	Draw	FC Lahti
Our model	36%	29%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours SJK: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SJK	FC Lahti
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	2.2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.40

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.63 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +12’	2.45	3.40	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:00 +517’	2.63	3.49	2.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SJK 2–3–1 FC Lahti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/08/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	1-2 HT 0-0	FC Lahti
13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	2-3 HT 1-1	SJK
27/07/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	5-5 HT 2-2	FC Lahti
27/05/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	0-4 HT 0-4	SJK
16/07/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Lahti	1-1 HT 1-1	SJK
22/04/23 Finland Veikkausliiga	SJK	0-0 HT 0-0	FC Lahti

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	36
2	FC Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	34
3	TPS	25	8	8	9	28	27	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	24
5	IFK Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	17

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SJK	FC Lahti
IFK Mariehamn	2-1 W	2-1 W
FF Jaro	1-1 D	1-1 D
KuPS Kuopio	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Lahti (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SJK

LLWDLLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	5	7	W
12/09	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
08/09	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
31/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
21/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	4	8	L
15/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
07/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	2-2	5	4	D
03/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	3-0	6	3	W
24/07	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	8	7	L
18/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	8	4	L

FC Lahti

WLWDLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
12/09	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-3	6	3	L
08/09	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
31/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
21/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	5	8	W
16/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	1-2	1-2	3	4	L
09/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
01/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
26/07	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
20/07	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SJK vs FC Lahti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SJK win (36%). Probabilities: SJK 36%, draw 27%, FC Lahti 36%.

How many goals are expected in SJK vs FC Lahti?

The model expects 2.65 goals (SJK 1.32 · FC Lahti 1.32), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in SJK vs FC Lahti?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.