Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 18/10, 14:00

Prediction: KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa

Team pages: KuPS Kuopio · VPS Vaasa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.34Total

KuPS Kuopio1.63

VPS Vaasa0.72

1X2

58% 26% 16%

KuPS Kuopio Draw VPS Vaasa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 51%

Most likely score

1-0 15%

Recent form · 10 last

KuPS Kuopio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDDWLL

VPS Vaasa 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLLLW

Head-to-head

KuPS Kuopio 3–3–0 VPS Vaasa (6 last)

VPS Vaasa0-2KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio3-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio0-0VPS Vaasa
KuPS Kuopio3-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1KuPS Kuopio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · KuPS Kuopio 1493 · VPS Vaasa 1460

	KuPS Kuopio	Draw	VPS Vaasa
Our model	58%	27%	15%
Market	59%	25%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 2.34 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	KuPS Kuopio	VPS Vaasa
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1	0.7 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.55

X3.60

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.05

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 22:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.44 → 1.55▲	Pinn 1.59
X	4.10 → 3.60▼	Pinn 4.00 ★
2	6.25 → 5.75▼	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 9.7% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:27 +4’	1.44	4.10	6.25
17:36 +2’	1.48▲	4.00▼	5.75▼
05:12 +2’	1.53▲	3.70▼	5.75
17:21 +5’	1.55▲	3.70	5.75
22:28 +5’	1.55	3.60▼	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +11’	1.55	3.99	5.87
18:31 +4’	1.54▼	4.10▲	6.15▲
07:52 +23’	1.55▲	4.11▲	6.01▼
08:48 +30’	1.57▲	4.03▼	5.81▼
14:07 +32’	1.57▼	4.06▲	5.81
10:18 +1’	1.53▼	4.19▲	6.15▲
16:37 +49’	1.55▲	4.09▼	5.91▼
16:57 +15’	1.59▲	4.00▼	5.68▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · KuPS Kuopio 3–3–0 VPS Vaasa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-2 HT 0-2	KuPS Kuopio
25/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 3-0	VPS Vaasa
13/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 1-0	KuPS Kuopio
10/06/26 Finland Cup	KuPS Kuopio	0-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
31/01/26 Finland Liigacup	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 1-0	VPS Vaasa
19/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 0-0	KuPS Kuopio

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Inter	27	14	10	3	33	18	52
2	HJK Helsinki	27	14	6	7	49	32	48
3	KuPS Kuopio	27	13	9	5	41	26	48
4	IF Gnistan	27	11	9	7	40	33	42
5	VPS Vaasa	27	11	6	10	31	31	39
6	AC Oulu	27	11	4	12	30	33	37

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	KuPS Kuopio	VPS Vaasa
FC Inter	0-1 L	0-1 L
AC Oulu	0-1 L	1-0 W
HJK Helsinki	0-0 D	0-6 L
IF Gnistan	1-1 D	1-0 W
FC Lahti	2-1 W	0-1 L
TPS	1-1 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: KuPS Kuopio (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

KuPS Kuopio

WDWLLDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
08/10	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
19/09	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
01/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	3	3	W

VPS Vaasa

LWLWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/10	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	0-6	6	3	L
19/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
14/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
31/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a KuPS Kuopio win (58%). Probabilities: KuPS Kuopio 58%, draw 26%, VPS Vaasa 16%.

How many goals are expected in KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa?

The model expects 2.34 goals (KuPS Kuopio 1.63 · VPS Vaasa 0.72), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in KuPS Kuopio vs VPS Vaasa?

The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.