Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 17/10, 15:00

Prediction: HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan

Team pages: HJK Helsinki · IF Gnistan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

HJK Helsinki2.21

IF Gnistan0.94

1X2

65% 21% 14%

HJK Helsinki Draw IF Gnistan

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

HJK Helsinki 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWDDW

IF Gnistan 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDDWDD

Head-to-head

HJK Helsinki 3–2–1 IF Gnistan (6 last)

IF Gnistan1-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki2-3IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan0-3HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki3-0IF Gnistan
HJK Helsinki3-1IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan2-2HJK Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HJK Helsinki 1555 · IF Gnistan 1507

	HJK Helsinki	Draw	IF Gnistan
Our model	65%	21%	14%
Market	66%	20%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1555 vs 1507).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK Helsinki	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.9	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Pinn 1.42
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.01 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +18’	1.40	4.50	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:23	1.42	5.01	6.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 3–2–1 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	1-1 HT 1-1	HJK Helsinki
23/08/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	2-3 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan
18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	0-3 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
10/03/26 Europe Friendlies	HJK Helsinki	3-0 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan
07/02/26 Finland Liigacup	HJK Helsinki	3-1 HT 2-0	IF Gnistan
03/11/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	2-2 HT 1-2	HJK Helsinki

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Inter	27	14	10	3	33	18	52
2	KuPS Kuopio	27	13	9	5	41	26	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	13	6	7	45	29	45
4	IF Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40	32	42
5	AC Oulu	26	11	4	11	27	29	37
6	VPS Vaasa	26	10	6	10	30	31	36

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK Helsinki	IF Gnistan
KuPS Kuopio	0-0 D	1-1 D
FC Inter	2-1 W	0-0 D
FC Ilves	2-1 W	3-2 W
AC Oulu	1-0 W	2-1 W
SJK	0-3 L	2-2 D
TPS	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HJK Helsinki (2 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HJK Helsinki

WLWWLWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
18/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
13/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
31/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	1	5	L
16/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-3	16	3	L
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W

IF Gnistan

WLDWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
12/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
08/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
31/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
23/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	3-2	7	5	W
17/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	3-2	8	4	W
07/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
01/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK Helsinki win (65%). Probabilities: HJK Helsinki 65%, draw 21%, IF Gnistan 14%.

How many goals are expected in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

The model expects 3.15 goals (HJK Helsinki 2.21 · IF Gnistan 0.94), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs IF Gnistan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.