Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 10/10, 18:00

Prediction: IFK Mariehamn vs FC Ilves

Team pages: IFK Mariehamn · FC Ilves

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

IFK Mariehamn1.28

FC Ilves1.52

1X2

31% 27% 42%

IFK Mariehamn Draw FC Ilves

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

IFK Mariehamn 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LDLLWWWLWL

FC Ilves 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLWWW

Head-to-head

IFK Mariehamn 1–1–4 FC Ilves (6 last)

FC Ilves2-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn2-2FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-1IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn3-2FC Ilves
FC Ilves2-0IFK Mariehamn
IFK Mariehamn0-1FC Ilves

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · IFK Mariehamn 1491 · FC Ilves 1526

	IFK Mariehamn	Draw	FC Ilves
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	31%	26%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Ilves: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	IFK Mariehamn	FC Ilves
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.3	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.90

X3.50

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:05

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.90	Pinn 2.94
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.74 ★
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.6% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
02:59 +6’	2.90	3.50	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:56 +248’	2.94	3.74	2.26

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · IFK Mariehamn 1–1–4 FC Ilves

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/08/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-0 HT 2-0	IFK Mariehamn
18/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	2-2 HT 1-1	FC Ilves
31/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-1 HT 0-0	IFK Mariehamn
27/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	3-2 HT 2-0	FC Ilves
11/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	FC Ilves	2-0 HT 1-0	IFK Mariehamn
28/04/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IFK Mariehamn	0-1 HT 0-0	FC Ilves

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Relegation Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	36
2	FC Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	34
3	TPS	25	8	8	9	28	27	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	24
5	IFK Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	17

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	IFK Mariehamn	FC Ilves
TPS	1-0 W	3-0 W
FC Lahti	1-2 L	3-1 W
FF Jaro	2-0 W	2-0 W
AC Oulu	1-1 D	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Ilves (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

IFK Mariehamn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-2	4	7	L
12/09	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
08/09	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
31/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-0	3	5	W
23/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	3-1	4-2	4	3	W
15/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
09/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	11	4	L
01/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-3	4	4	L
25/07	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	7	5	D
20/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-2	5	2	L

FC Ilves

WWLWLLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	3-0	3	4	W
12/09	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	3-1	0	3	W
08/09	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-0	5	3	W
31/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-2	6	2	L
22/08	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	9	4	L
17/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	2-3	3	5	L
09/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	4	W
02/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	4	2	L
26/07	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
20/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Ilves?

According to our model, the most likely result is an FC Ilves win (42%). Probabilities: IFK Mariehamn 31%, draw 27%, FC Ilves 42%.

How many goals are expected in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Ilves?

The model expects 2.8 goals (IFK Mariehamn 1.28 · FC Ilves 1.52), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in IFK Mariehamn vs FC Ilves?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.