Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 08/10, 17:00

Prediction: HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa

Team pages: HJK Helsinki · VPS Vaasa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

HJK Helsinki1.74

VPS Vaasa0.9

1X2

56% 25% 19%

HJK Helsinki Draw VPS Vaasa

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

HJK Helsinki 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLWWDD

VPS Vaasa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLWLL

Head-to-head

HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 VPS Vaasa (6 last)

HJK Helsinki2-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa2-1HJK Helsinki
VPS Vaasa0-2HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki3-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1HJK Helsinki
VPS Vaasa1-3HJK Helsinki

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HJK Helsinki 1530 · VPS Vaasa 1460

	HJK Helsinki	Draw	VPS Vaasa
Our model	56%	26%	18%
Market	57%	24%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1530 vs 1460).
H2H favours HJK Helsinki: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK Helsinki	VPS Vaasa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1	0.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.1	2.8 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 4.17
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.34 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.9% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:47 +6’	1.60	3.80	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:04 +469’	1.58	4.25	5.36
10:08 +51’	1.59▲	4.17▼	5.34▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 4–1–1 VPS Vaasa

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	2-1 HT 1-0	VPS Vaasa
22/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	2-1 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
05/07/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-2 HT 0-0	HJK Helsinki
26/04/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	3-1 HT 2-0	VPS Vaasa
20/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 0-1	HJK Helsinki
01/09/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-3 HT 1-1	HJK Helsinki

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	KuPS Kuopio	25	13	9	3	41	24	48
2	FC Inter	25	13	9	3	32	18	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	42
4	IF Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	41
5	VPS Vaasa	25	10	6	9	30	25	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	34

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK Helsinki	VPS Vaasa
KuPS Kuopio	0-0 D	0-2 L
FC Inter	2-1 W	0-1 L
FC Ilves	2-1 W	1-0 W
FF Jaro	3-0 W	3-1 W
AC Oulu	1-0 W	1-0 W
TPS	1-0 W	1-3 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 0 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HJK Helsinki (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HJK Helsinki

WWLWWLWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
13/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
31/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	1	5	L
16/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W
03/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-3	16	3	L
26/07	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
18/07	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	2-1	3	4	W

VPS Vaasa

LLLWLWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
14/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
31/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	6	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	1-3	4	2	L
18/07	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-2	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK Helsinki win (56%). Probabilities: HJK Helsinki 56%, draw 25%, VPS Vaasa 19%.

How many goals are expected in HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa?

The model expects 2.64 goals (HJK Helsinki 1.74 · VPS Vaasa 0.9), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs VPS Vaasa?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.