Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 12/10, 17:00

Prediction: VPS Vaasa vs IF Gnistan

Team pages: VPS Vaasa · IF Gnistan

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

VPS Vaasa1.4

IF Gnistan1.23

1X2

39% 29% 32%

VPS Vaasa Draw IF Gnistan

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

VPS Vaasa 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLWLLL

IF Gnistan 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLDWWDDWDD

Head-to-head

VPS Vaasa 0–4–2 IF Gnistan (6 last)

IF Gnistan1-1VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa1-1IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan0-0VPS Vaasa
VPS Vaasa0-0IF Gnistan
VPS Vaasa0-1IF Gnistan
IF Gnistan3-0VPS Vaasa

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · VPS Vaasa 1447 · IF Gnistan 1535

	VPS Vaasa	Draw	IF Gnistan
Our model	40%	29%	32%
Market	39%	29%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours IF Gnistan (rating 1447 vs 1535).
H2H favours IF Gnistan: 2-4-0.
High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	VPS Vaasa	IF Gnistan
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.8	1.5 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 5	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.10

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.30▲	Pinn 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.10▼	Pinn 3.56 ★
2	2.75 → 2.88▲	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.5% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:50 +3’	2.25	3.30	2.75
22:55 +25’	2.30▲	3.10▼	2.88▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +2’	2.35	3.54	2.92
13:10 +45’	2.42▲	3.56▲	2.82▼
20:11 +43’	2.40▼	3.55▼	2.85▲
15:59 +158’	2.40	3.56▲	2.84▼
07:39 +38’	2.42▲	3.56	2.81▼
13:25 +92’	2.45▲	3.56	2.77▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · VPS Vaasa 0–4–2 IF Gnistan

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	1-1 HT 1-1	VPS Vaasa
09/05/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	1-1 HT 1-0	IF Gnistan
15/08/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	0-0 HT 0-0	VPS Vaasa
18/06/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-0 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan
23/10/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	VPS Vaasa	0-1 HT 0-0	IF Gnistan
04/08/24 Finland Veikkausliiga	IF Gnistan	3-0 HT 2-0	VPS Vaasa

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Inter	26	13	10	3	32	18	49
2	KuPS Kuopio	26	13	9	4	41	25	48
3	HJK Helsinki	26	13	6	7	45	29	45
4	IF Gnistan	26	11	9	6	40	32	42
5	AC Oulu	26	11	4	11	27	29	37
6	VPS Vaasa	26	10	6	10	30	31	36

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	VPS Vaasa	IF Gnistan
HJK Helsinki	0-6 L	1-1 D
KuPS Kuopio	0-2 L	1-1 D
FC Inter	0-1 L	0-0 D
AC Oulu	1-0 W	2-1 W
FC Ilves	1-0 W	3-2 W
TPS	1-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 4 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: IF Gnistan (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

VPS Vaasa

LLWLWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/10	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	0-6	6	3	L
19/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	0-2	10	6	L
14/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
08/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
31/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	2	L
22/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
14/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	1-3	7	5	L
08/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	3-1	6	4	W
02/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
25/07	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-3	1-3	4	2	L

IF Gnistan

WLDWWDDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
18/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
12/09	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	3	4	W
08/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	1-1	6	4	D
31/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	1-1	11	3	D
23/08	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-2	3-2	7	5	W
17/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	2-2	3-2	8	4	W
07/08	SJK Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
01/08	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
26/07	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-1	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in VPS Vaasa vs IF Gnistan?

According to our model, the most likely result is a VPS Vaasa win (39%). Probabilities: VPS Vaasa 39%, draw 29%, IF Gnistan 32%.

How many goals are expected in VPS Vaasa vs IF Gnistan?

The model expects 2.63 goals (VPS Vaasa 1.4 · IF Gnistan 1.23), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in VPS Vaasa vs IF Gnistan?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.