Football · Finland Veikkausliiga · 25/10, 14:00

Prediction: HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio

Team pages: HJK Helsinki · KuPS Kuopio

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

HJK Helsinki1.63

KuPS Kuopio1.08

1X2

50% 26% 24%

HJK Helsinki Draw KuPS Kuopio

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

HJK Helsinki 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDDWWW

KuPS Kuopio 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLLDDWLLW

Head-to-head

HJK Helsinki 1–2–3 KuPS Kuopio (6 last)

KuPS Kuopio0-0HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki0-4KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio1-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki0-2KuPS Kuopio
KuPS Kuopio3-1HJK Helsinki
HJK Helsinki1-0KuPS Kuopio

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HJK Helsinki 1548 · KuPS Kuopio 1498

	HJK Helsinki	Draw	KuPS Kuopio
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HJK Helsinki (rating 1548 vs 1498).
H2H favours KuPS Kuopio: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HJK Helsinki	KuPS Kuopio
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 0.9	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.2	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.2	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.60

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 00:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.83▲	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Pinn 3.77
2	3.80 → 3.70▼	Pinn 4.18 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 9.4% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:16 +4’	1.80	3.70	3.80
00:09 +7’	1.83▲	3.60▼	3.70▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:00 +138’	1.89	3.71	3.93
07:51 +20’	1.81▼	3.79▲	4.24▲
08:15 +57’	1.79▼	3.81▲	4.27▲
22:45 +22’	1.81▲	3.79▼	4.24▼
20:21 +37’	1.83▲	3.77▼	4.18▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HJK Helsinki 1–2–3 KuPS Kuopio

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	0-0 HT 0-0	HJK Helsinki
27/06/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	0-4 HT 0-1	KuPS Kuopio
26/04/26 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	1-1 HT 1-0	HJK Helsinki
09/11/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	HJK Helsinki	0-2 HT 0-1	KuPS Kuopio
19/10/25 Finland Veikkausliiga	KuPS Kuopio	3-1 HT 1-0	HJK Helsinki
20/09/25 Finland Cup	HJK Helsinki	1-0 HT 0-0	KuPS Kuopio

Standings · Finland Veikkausliiga · Veikkausliiga 2026, Championship Round

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Inter	28	14	10	4	34	20	52
2	HJK Helsinki	28	15	6	7	53	32	51
3	KuPS Kuopio	28	14	9	5	43	26	51
4	IF Gnistan	28	11	9	8	40	37	42
5	AC Oulu	28	12	4	12	32	34	40
6	VPS Vaasa	28	11	6	11	31	33	39

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HJK Helsinki	KuPS Kuopio
IF Gnistan	4-0 W	1-1 D
AC Oulu	4-3 W	0-1 L
VPS Vaasa	6-0 W	2-0 W
FC Inter	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: HJK Helsinki (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HJK Helsinki

WWLWWDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	4-0	4	5	W
12/10	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	4-3	6	4	W
08/10	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	3-0	6-0	4	3	W
18/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-1	1-1	6	1	D
13/09	KuPS Kuopio Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
09/09	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
31/08	FC Ilves Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
23/08	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-3	1	5	L
16/08	FF Jaro Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
09/08	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-0	6	6	W

KuPS Kuopio

DWLLDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	1	5	W
11/10	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
08/10	AC Oulu Finland Veikkausliiga	0-1	0-1	9	2	L
19/09	VPS Vaasa Finland Veikkausliiga	2-0	2-0	4	6	W
13/09	HJK Helsinki Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
08/09	IF Gnistan Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
31/08	FC Inter Finland Veikkausliiga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
23/08	IFK Mariehamn Finland Veikkausliiga	1-3	2-4	10	3	L
16/08	FC Lahti Finland Veikkausliiga	2-1	2-1	4	4	W
09/08	TPS Finland Veikkausliiga	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HJK Helsinki win (50%). Probabilities: HJK Helsinki 50%, draw 26%, KuPS Kuopio 24%.

How many goals are expected in HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model expects 2.71 goals (HJK Helsinki 1.63 · KuPS Kuopio 1.08), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in HJK Helsinki vs KuPS Kuopio?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.